There are the tariffs Biden proposed on May 14.
The products affected only represent about 18B in total imports, which is a very small fraction of the 427B total imports from China in 2023. Hence, the current consequences on the broader economy are going to be very minimal.
The consequences are more specific to the particular industries where the imports from China represented a significant fraction of the total.
China’s retaliation is expected to come but is not expected to be overly aggressive, but only as a response. These could be some of the options:
- Tit-for-tat tariffs that match a similar amount of 18B in products like autos or agricultural products.
- Export restrictions, china could target the very items that the US has identified for temporary tariff exclusions due to their heavy dependence on China
- Currency devaluation
- Export controls on critical material inputs and technology
- M&A disruptions
- Selectively targeting MNCs
China’s Chamber of Commerce already issue an statement that China is considering increasing tariffs for vehicles with larger than 2.5 liters engines due to the US and EU recent actions
