I assign a 30–40% probability of it passing. Here’s my reasoning:
- The regulation will contradict the EU CO2 regulation for 2035 which bans combustion vehicles from 2035. This gives member states and companies justification to oppose it.
- Passing the regulation requires a high threshed, a majority in the EU parliament and 55% of countries and 65% of EU population should vote for it. Germany, Italy, Poland and Czechia have opposed the strict EU CO2 regulation. Their population makes up 42% of the EU population, enough to form a blocking minority.
- Representatives of four parties including the EPP, ECR, PfE and ESN which control 375 or 52% of votes in the EU Parliament have opposed the planned mandate.
- Corporate/rental companies buy 60% of new cars, hence building framework conditions such as charging stations for such a large number of EVs takes time.