Continuation of the original Discord channel.
Discord History
https://www.youtube.com/c/CaspianReport
YouTube
We try to make sense of an increasingly complicated world by cutting through the noise and analysing geopolitical trends.
May 29, 2022
Gary G — 05/29/2022 6:43 PM
Any thoughts on how the Ukraine crisis might end + implications & opportunities?
Pirate Captain — 05/29/2022 7:01 PM
In the moment the situation is becoming more dire with russians closing in on Severodonetsk which is at the risk of being encircled and russian advances in the Donbas and Luhansk regions. Everything points towards prolonged war. Opportunities are in e.g. european defense companies or certain (renewable) energy companies as there is going to be a shift in the european energy policy
- [7:02 PM]
Here is a link to some preliminary work we did when the war started: Oil and Gas + Russian invasion of Ukraine - Google Sheets
Google Docs
First assessment Ukraine war is economic catastrophe, warns World Bank both Russia and Ukraine are big food producers. Ukraine is the world’s biggest producer of sunflower oil, with Russia number two, according to S&P Global Platts. Between them th…
- [7:03 PM]
Feel free to add comments where you see fit. If you sent me your email address i can even give you full edit access
Gary G — 05/29/2022 7:25 PM
Thanks, very interesting! What I would add is that Ukraine is also an important player in the market for construction materials - sorry if I missed it somewhere. Since the start of the crisis, costs have soared and many real estate developers are faced with significantly higher costs (mostly steel & iron) in addition to delays along the supply chain. How much of the impact do you think has been priced in already? (line 93 of the first assessment tab suggest a lot?) Oil and other sources of energy have dominated the news, but what about wheat for example? Will people substitute with other types of grain or even increase reliance on rice / potatoes / I don’t know what?
Pirate Captain — 05/29/2022 10:15 PM
Yeah some specific parts of the supply chain were affected and caused problems. Like e.g. cable harnesses in the automotive industry. We have some specifics in company specific sheets. (edited)
- [10:18 PM]
Good point on construction materials! I am worried about the housing market in Germany and higher cost of construction materials and slower development activity is probably a tailwind to prices. We are currently in the process of studying the topic closer but falling prices seem to be definitely possible or likely
- [10:19 PM]
what are you seeing on this topic?
Pirate Captain — 05/29/2022 10:22 PM
In terms of what has been priced in i have no idea. Never traded commodities so not an expert at all on the commodity subject. Keep in mind that all our sheets at the current stage are more source collections then thorough analysis. Wouldn’t think of any lines as high confidence statements
- [10:27 PM]
I’ve added a commodity tab though. We could certainly add a few price charts. I think ppl would obvs try to substitute wheat but from my understanding a lot of misery is coming. You can see this already when watching the likes of Al Jazeera
June 1, 2022
MagalyNH6 — 06/01/2022 10:19 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfyM81sEXhs
@MagalyNH6
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfyM81sEXhs
Pirate Captain — 06/01/2022 10:48 PM
what are his main points? Does it add something to our oil and gas analysis? Btw. @Gary G i just copied another part to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine Sheet from our economic analysis sheet which focuses more on oil and gas and is quite interesting.
MagalyNH6 — 06/01/2022 11:23 PM
- Russia account surplus went from 6.7B to 37.6 B 2. Surplus is both from higher exports but also from a significant decrease in imports 3. Higher exports are due to higher prices and not higher volumes - Volume going to Europe contracted by about 10-20% - Even though they are selling are discount prices compare to the rest of the world, prices are still higher than before the war - India and China have been expanding their imports from Russia’s oil and gas 4. Less imports: Russia is now importing 40% less from all its crucial partners, including China - Russia highly dependent from advanced imports like chemicals and machines, this means Russia military is struggling to buy war equipment - Import substitution has been reported to be weak in Russia 5. Even though they now have more money to finance the war, it will be difficult for them if they can’t buy the war equipment necessary to keep going due to sanctions, and its substitution capabilities are still not the best (edited)
2
August 25, 2022
Pirate Captain — 08/25/2022 9:02 PM
[Inserted] Pirate Captain — 06/03/2022 @Gary G recent military developments on the battle of Donbass. I can recommend all videos of Markus Reisner it’s insightful when it comes to understanding modern warfare: https://youtu.be/RpC1kXhW2Lw Gary G — 06/03/2022 Thanks, that is a well made video. Initial impression: Ukraine is holding on but it is only a matter of time until at least the eastern part is overrun? Pirate Captain — 06/03/2022 I think the video highlights the need of rocket systems like the himars beeing delivered as russian superiority on artillery cannot be fought without more heavy weaponry. cannot judge the outcome tbh would need more details. I know there are specialized accounts on twitter which are reporting on individual parts of the development but I am lacking the time to look more comprehensively into it Pirate Captain — 06/05/2022 x.com https://youtu.be/LjgrRx1eyBc https://youtu.be/K2N_fHKrWIg Pirate Captain — 06/06/2022 Kings and General Videos are among the best on military developments in hindsight ChickenWaffle — 06/06/2022 Given the current situation, do you think Ukraine has a chance to win against Russia? Pirate Captain — 06/06/2022 Yes definitely! I would be very surprised if they wouldn’t win MagalyNH6 — 06/06/2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdQhOS5iry4 Aron~Bluesky — 06/11/2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5nDBZ55Yxs
OSINT Aggregator (@AggregateOsint)
#Severodonetsk - In a surprise move, #Ukraine has reinforced the city with heavily armed troops and the #UAF foreign legion & counterattacked #Russian Forces. #UAF has reportedly recaptured 20% of the city & Metolkine to the E. This was first reported by pro-#RuAF sources.
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Twitter•06/04/2022 7:06 AM
With new weapons, Ukraine goes on the offensive
Battle of Donbas Begins - Russian Invasion of Ukraine DOCUMENTARY
Putin warns of Russia hitting new targets if US gives missiles to U…
September 1, 2022
ChickenWaffle — 09/01/2022 2:59 PM
Ukraine War: What is the endgame in Kherson?
1
September 2, 2022
Pirate Captain — 09/02/2022 12:44 PM
How HIMARS Changed the War in Ukraine - Russian Invasion DOCUMENTARY
September 10, 2022
IIII — 09/10/2022 6:39 AM
rumors abgeordnete-wollen-putin-wegen-hochverrats-anklagen.html
Pirate Captain — 09/10/2022 5:52 PM
I:10 Most detailed and sophisticated analysis from a private YouTuber i’ve seen so far https://youtu.be/5cilE7t9OWE (edited)
Ukraine Counter Offensive Fog of War
Pirate Captain — 09/10/2022 6:14 PM
Here the news that Ukrainians captures strategically important Izium https://youtu.be/uEpUWLgo164
Russia-Ukraine live updates: Ukraine claims major gains in east
September 11, 2022
ChickenWaffle — 09/11/2022 4:30 AM
https://youtu.be/THfX-QeTJu8 (edited)
Ukraine War: Russia orders troops to withdraw after shock Ukrainian…
Pirate Captain — 09/11/2022 11:14 PM
More insights into Ukrainian counteroffensive. I:9 https://youtu.be/-66Sz_0WGFk
Russia’s ‘rigid’ forces collapse to ‘audacious lightning’ Ukraine c…
September 13, 2022
rick.sanchez1974 — 09/13/2022 11:57 AM
Breaking Defense
As Ukraine counterattacks, Russia’s military facing steep artillery…
Even before this weeks’ gains by Ukraine, there were signs that Russia’s artillery is wearing down, and that it is running low on munitions - potentially limiting Moscow’s options.
1
September 14, 2022
Pirate Captain — 09/14/2022 10:34 PM
Some new insights as usual (on the use of himars and the two offensive‘s) https://youtu.be/Q9-NER8aFJ4
“All in!” The Ukrainian Offensives in Cherson and Charkiv
September 21, 2022
Aron~Bluesky — 09/21/2022 9:52 AM
-Russia’s Putin announces partial military mobilization. Putin mobilizes 300,000 troops for war in Ukraine and warns he's not bluffing with nuclear threat (edited)
CNBC
Russia’s Putin announces partial military mobilization
In a pre-recorded announcement, Putin said the West “wants to destroy our country.”
September 22, 2022
IIII — 09/22/2022 6:59 AM
Russland: Wissenschaftler stirbt bei mysteriösem Sturz
Russland: Luftfahrtexperte stirbt bei mysteriösem Sturz
Seit Monaten häufen sich mysteriöse Todesfälle in Russlands Elite.
September 26, 2022
Pirate Captain — 09/26/2022 4:22 PM
Russian threads are going to be taken seriously. We should not totally disregard them: Putin's 'incredibly dangerous' nuclear threats raise the risk of an unprecedented disaster @MeDavid (edited)
CNBC
Putin’s ‘incredibly dangerous’ nuclear threats raise the risk of an…
“Coming from the person who has the sole decision-making power regarding Russian nuclear weapons this will have to be taken seriously,” one analyst said.
September 27, 2022
Pirate Captain — 09/27/2022 1:12 PM
Reuters
Medvedev raises spectre of Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine
An ally of President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday outlined the scenario of a nuclear strike on Ukraine, saying that the U.S.-led NATO military alliance would be too scared of a ‘nuclear apocalypse’ to directly enter the conflict in reponse.
September 28, 2022
Aron~Bluesky — 09/28/2022 9:15 AM
SI=0, I=7 -After a series of sham referendums in four Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, the results are out. Unsurprisingly, they show a resounding majority voted to join Russia. -It’s widely expected that Russian President Vladimir Putin will announce Friday that the occupied regions are being annexed and becoming a part of the Russian Federation. Biden approves $1.1 billion more in military aid to Ukraine; Russia denies Nord Stream sabotage allegations (edited)
CNBC
Results come in from sham referendums in occupied Ukraine; Nord Str…
After a set of sham referendums in four Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, the results have come in. Unsurprisingly, they show a majority voting to join Russia.
September 30, 2022
Aron~Bluesky — 09/30/2022 2:39 PM
I=8, SI=0 -Putin declares ‘four new regions of Russia’ as Moscow annexes parts of Ukraine Putin declares 'four new regions of Russia' as Moscow illegally annexes parts of Ukraine @MeDavid
CNBC
Putin declares ‘four new regions of Russia’ as Moscow annexes parts…
The annexation follows a series of referendums that the West described as a sham.
October 1, 2022
Pirate Captain — 10/01/2022 3:56 PM
I believe we are heading towards the most critical and dangerous moment of the ukraine war so far for the following reasons: -Putin is with his back to the wall and russia cannot win a conventional war, as long as Ukraine enjoys the support of the west. Technological and industrial advantages are too large and ukraine justification for fighting, moral and manpower is way stronger. - By annexing those 4 Ukraine regions, declaring them as Russian and proclaiming that Russia reserves the right to use any measure (including nuclear force) to defend Russian territory Putin is establishing a justification for the use of nuclear weapons. - Unlike in the past e.g. when it came to the delivery of heavy weaponry the west is not backing down and is stressing ukraines right for territorial integrity. - Putin is known for doubling down. He went from “a special operation” to bombing and destroying whole cities like mariupol. He ordered a partial mobilization and is now annexing whole territories with a clear nuclear treat. This makes any face saving retreat domestically very difficult. → Given that path and the fact that forcing his opponents to the negotiation table seems to be the only option how russia could win this war, i believe a further escalation of nuclear rethoric and potentially even nuclear tests might not be that unlikely. We now have to understand how strong Putins nuclear treat and hand is. What i’ve heard is that Putin would loose countries like China and India in the case of any nuclear use. Can we confirm, that by finding videos or articles with detailed expert knowledge on that topic? I’d like to develop an understanding how those countries would react in that case with a high level of confidence. Additionally interesting would be any detailed discussions of other reasons why nuclear use might be unlikely (like lacking internal support etc.) @MeDavid @Aron~Bluesky https://youtu.be/0H3vdNJ8oio https://youtu.be/537xqWmAXtw https://youtu.be/HGncl8xH1uo
Hear what CNN reporter noticed about crowd watching Putin’s speech
US responds to Putin’s annexation of parts of Ukraine
‘Putin has effectively crossed the Rubicon’: Putin critic Bill Brow…
October 4, 2022
Pirate Captain — 10/04/2022 3:58 AM
Ukraine advances in the south, Russian officials admit | DW News
October 7, 2022
Pirate Captain — 10/07/2022 9:22 AM
According to that video there are 25.000 russian soldiers west to the large dnipro river, who are unable to cross back the river as bridges are destroyed and ukrainians are pushing on. As far as i know russian are using boots to transport troops and supply across the river. @MeDavid can you confirm that those troops are basically trapped and couldn’t be evacuated? Overall it’s a positive situation but makes the nuclear threats of putin even more dangerous as this might be a situation which justifies at least renewed nuclear threats from putin https://youtu.be/RIhI1OTGGOs
How Ukraine is Re-Capturing Kherson: The Latest Battlefield Update
MeDavid — 10/07/2022 2:57 PM
Will check that out tonight.
1
Pirate Captain — 10/07/2022 11:06 PM
I:10 There is now confirmation from Biden how serious the U.S. Government is taking Putin threats. The Biden quote in min 1:37 about nuclear ammagedon which is a counterthreat is unsettling and i agree with the guest at min 4:55 in his assessment that this U.S. rethoric might not be wise in the current situation. @Research I think we should take this serious given the massive impact any miscalculation by Putin would have. (BlackSwan Event) Even though the chance that anything happens might still be low, we should have an idea what to do if anything happens. (or even rethoric continues to escalate) Having Contingency plans esp. for scenarios like that is an important step in becoming more professional. @MeDavid goals are still a) Continue building on what we have and find out more about the likelihood that Putin uses a tactical nuclear weapon. What could Putins justification and motivation be? (E.g. to protect troops that are stuck on the west of the dnipro river.) How large would any diplomatic fallout be? How would China and India react? (I:10 Would they only condem Putin or break the alliance?) How likely is it that he would find support for such a move within the Russian power circle and what could using a nuclear weapon mean for his longterm support within the russian elite and population? Any other arguments which could help us in our assessment why he can or cannot escalate further and thinks or doesn’t think it’s in his advantage? I see answering questions as building blocks for our assessment. The more definitiv and detailed a question can be answered and the higher our confidence level is in our assessment the better. I am in the moment still very interested in a detailed assessment of an expert how exactly China would reacts if Putin uses a tactical nuclear weapon and hear detailed reasons about his/her assessment. b) The next step after that is understanding any potential counter reaction better. If we wake up tommorrow with news that Putin used a tactical nuclear weapon what can we expect are the next things that happen? I’ve heard two retired generals talk about a conventional counterstrike. Is this still the most likely scenario? https://youtu.be/rrA3WFYWlCA
Biden offers stark ‘Armageddon’ warning over Putin’s threats
1
October 8, 2022
Pirate Captain
I:10 There is now confirmation from Biden how serious the U.S. Government is taking Putin threats. The Biden quote in min 1:37 about nuclear ammagedon which is a counterthreat is unsettling and i agree with the guest at min 4:55 in his assessment that this U.S. rethoric might not be wise in the current situation. @Research I think we should take this serious given the massive impact any miscalculation by Putin would have. (BlackSwan Event) Even though the chance that anything happens might still be low, we should have an idea what to do if anything happens. (or even rethoric continues to escalate) Having Contingency plans esp. for scenarios like that is an important step in becoming more professional. @MeDavid goals are still a) Continue building on what we have and find out more about the likelihood that Putin uses a tactical nuclear weapon. What could Putins justification and motivation be? (E.g. to protect troops that are stuck on the west of the dnipro river.) How large would any diplomatic fallout be? How would China and India react? (I:10 Would they only condem Putin or break the alliance?) How likely is it that he would find support for such a move within the Russian power circle and what could using a nuclear weapon mean for his longterm support within the russian elite and population? Any other arguments which could help us in our assessment why he can or cannot escalate further and thinks or doesn’t think it’s in his advantage? I see answering questions as building blocks for our assessment. The more definitiv and detailed a question can be answered and the higher our confidence level is in our assessment the better. I am in the moment still very interested in a detailed assessment of an expert how exactly China would reacts if Putin uses a tactical nuclear weapon and hear detailed reasons about his/her assessment. b) The next step after that is understanding any potential counter reaction better. If we wake up tommorrow with news that Putin used a tactical nuclear weapon what can we expect are the next things that happen? I’ve heard two retired generals talk about a conventional counterstrike. Is this still the most likely scenario? https://youtu.be/rrA3WFYWlCA
Pirate Captain — 10/08/2022 11:34 AM
I:8 More on that topic including commentary form EX-CIA director Leon Panetta https://youtu.be/PoKG5KsIWSc
Ex-CIA director says using nuclear weapons in Ukraine would lead to…
1
Pirate Captain — 10/08/2022 7:45 PM
I:3 Turkish stance on Russia https://youtu.be/DKcJOjsT4nE
Putin Loses A Friend: Why Turkey Just Bailed on Russia
October 9, 2022
Pirate Captain — 10/09/2022 8:16 PM
I:6 Indias stance on Russia https://youtu.be/Fn-R9o9Ju58
Is Putin Losing an Ally? India Turning Their Back on Russia
October 10, 2022
MeDavid — 10/10/2022 8:59 PM
Didn’t have the time to watch it, will do that tomorrow. Title look promising .https://youtu.be/5TtYilHoPng (edited)
What if Putin Goes Nuclear? The West’s 3 Options
October 13, 2022
MeDavid — 10/13/2022 8:29 PM
Another situation similar to the one we have, and how the US said it will react vs how it actually reacted Obama delivered a speech in 2012 promising to intervene in the Syrian civil war if Syrian President Bashar Assad’s forces used chemical weapons, but then didn’t follow through when those weapons were deployed a year later, which critics said emboldened Assad in crushing his opponents. https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3685632-rising-nuclear-fears-spur-debate-over-red-lines-in-ukraine-war/ (edited)
colinmeyn
Rising nuclear fears spur debate over red lines in Ukraine war
Mounting fears that Russian President Vladimir Putin could resort to a nuclear weapon to stem his losses in Ukraine have prompted debate about what are the real “red lines” for Moscow and Washingto…
1
- [8:34 PM]
Lukashenko has ordered troops to deploy with Russian forces near the Ukraine border, and his defence ministry says “combat readiness” drills are under way. On Tuesday, the interior ministry held exercises to eliminate “sabotage groups” near Yelsk, only 20 km (12 miles) from the border with Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/with-putin-under-pressure-belarus-edges-closer-joining-war-ukraine-2022-10-12/ (edited)
Reuters
With Putin under pressure, Belarus edges closer to joining war in U…
A flurry of military activity in Belarus this week has caught the attention of Ukraine and the West as a potential sign that President Alexander Lukashenko may commit his army in support of Russia’s flailing war effort in Ukraine.
1
October 19, 2022
Pirate Captain — 10/19/2022 10:08 AM
I:6 Interesting comments from Austrias previous chancellor Sebastian Kurz in Min 16:50. He is saying he met Putin regularly in the past and thinks that Putin is someone who is ready to cross any red line and for whom loosing is not an option. Therefore he is worried about a possible escalation. https://youtu.be/AZEndA6tyD8 (edited)
Sebastian Kurz im Interview | Reden wir über Politik: Karriere, Kli…
1
MeDavid — 10/19/2022 12:51 PM
Russia says that if US gives Ukraine long-range missiles it will become an active participant in the war. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/5j-OA-gooiE
Russia Gives US Red Line Over Ukraine #shorts
- [12:51 PM]
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/1-jQntYNBRg
NATO Gives Russia A Red Line Over Ukraine #shorts
1
- [12:55 PM]
I = 8 “We don’t see any capacity to have a battalion battlegroup stand up anymore, it’s down to company-sized battlegroups,” said Kristoffersen. A company counts around 200 personnel while a battalion usually counts some 1,000. Yet, Kristoffersen stressed Russia could rebuild its land forces in a hurry given it trains about 250,000 conscripts every year. Insights from Norway’s head of Armed Forces https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nuclear-threat-more-useful-russia-than-nuclear-strike-norways-armed-forces-chief-2022-10-18/ (edited)
Reuters
Nuclear threat more useful to Russia than nuclear strike, Norway’s …
The West should listen carefully when Russian President Vladimir Putin talks about using nuclear weapons but should remember that it is more useful for him to threaten their use than to go ahead, the head of Norway’s armed forces told Reuters.
@MeDavid
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/1-jQntYNBRg
Pirate Captain — 10/19/2022 8:22 PM
That was not an official statement but the unofficial statement of a nato senior official speaking at the condition of anonymity https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-nuclear-strike-would-almost-certainly-draw-physical-response-nato-2022-10-12/
Reuters
Russian nuclear strike likely to provoke ‘physical response,’ NATO …
A Russian nuclear strike would change the course of the conflict and almost certainly provoke a “physical response” from Ukraine’s allies and potentially from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a senior NATO official said on Wednesday.
- [8:22 PM]
I:8 Interesting insights @MeDavid @rick.sanchez1974 https://youtu.be/ZqLpepwMi2w (edited)
Putin declares martial law in illegally annexed regions of Ukraine
1
October 22, 2022
MeDavid — 10/22/2022 11:41 AM
I :7 US and Russian defence ministers discuss Ukraine in rare talks ( they haven’t spoken since May ) Ukraine war: US and Russian defence ministers discuss Ukraine in rare talks
BBC News
Ukraine war: US and Russian defence ministers discuss Ukraine in ra…
Lloyd Austin spoke with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu for the second time since the war began.
October 25, 2022
MeDavid — 10/25/2022 7:19 PM
@Pirate Captain very important article, read all of it. This may justify Russia’s sudden move of saying Ukraine is planning to use a dirty bomb. Ukraine alleges Russian dirty bomb deception at nuke plant https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-sergei-shoigu-climate-and-environment-government-politics-6ea801e22edee2d25c1e24d613f18e4a (edited)
AP NEWS
Ukraine alleges Russian dirty bomb deception at nuke plant
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine’s nuclear energy operator said Tuesday that Russian forces were performing secret work at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, activity that could shed light on Russia’s claims that the Ukrainian military is preparing a “provocation” involving a radioactive device.
1
- [7:22 PM]
U.S. considers HAWK air defense equipment for Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-us-considers-hawk-air-defense-equipment-ukraine-say-us-officials-2022-10-25/ (edited)
Reuters
Exclusive: U.S. considers HAWK air defense equipment for Ukraine
The United States is considering sending older HAWK air defense equipment from storage to Ukraine to help it defend against Russian drone and cruise missile attacks, two U.S. officials told Reuters.
MeDavid — 10/25/2022 7:28 PM
Some billionaires may start questioning Putin’s decisions Russia Billionaire Prigozhin Confronted Putin Over Ukraine War: Report - Business Insider
Business Insider
Russian billionaire behind mercenary army in Ukraine confronted Put…
Yevgeniy Prigozhin met with Putin in private to voice his disagreement over the handling of the Ukraine war, The Washington Post reported.
October 26, 2022
MeDavid — 10/26/2022 12:03 PM
I:9 A heavy battle is most likely going to take place in Kherson. Russian authorities are putting increasing pressure on residents to leave the city and go to Russia, but troops aren’t seen leaving the area. They may prepare for a defense, as Kherson is the only land route to Crimea and to the mouth of the Dnipro river. Russian forces in the region have been driven back in recent weeks and risk being trapped on the west bank of the Dnipro River. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-hits-ukraine-homes-evacuates-kherson-warns-escalation-2022-10-24/ (edited)
Reuters
Russia digging in for ‘heaviest of battles’ in Kherson - Ukrainian …
Russian forces are digging in for the “heaviest of battles” in the of Kherson, a senior Ukrainian official said, as the Kremlin prepares to defend the largest city under its control in Ukraine.
- [12:07 PM]
Iran is now at war with Ukraine, the title claims, but that is unofficial. Still, Iran keeps supplying Russia in the war with Ukraine, which poses a big danger. https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/26/iran-ukraine-russia-war-drones-missiles-military-advisors-middle-east-nuclear/ (edited)
Iran Is Now at War With Ukraine
Tehran has taken its fight against the West to Europe.
MeDavid — 10/26/2022 12:17 PM
Putin admits Russia is facing ‘issues’ in the Ukraine war and told his team to make faster decisions https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-admits-russia-facing-issues-ukraine-war-decisions-economy-mobilization-2022-10
Business Insider
Putin admits Russia is facing ‘issues’ in the Ukraine war and told …
Putin’s comments came days after the Russian central bank said the mobilization of men, to fight in the war, could hit the economy.
1
October 27, 2022
MeDavid — 10/27/2022 9:36 AM
I:8 Very insightful finds by Reuters in Russian abandoned base. It’s easy to use that things are not going as well as Russia pretends. https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-base/ (edited)
Reuters
Abandoned Russian base holds secrets of retreat in Ukraine
When Russian troops fled the Ukrainian town of Balakliia last month, they left behind thousands of documents that show in unprecedented detail the inner workings of the Russian war machine.
October 28, 2022
MeDavid — 10/28/2022 7:22 PM
I:8 Putin says there is ‘no need’ to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine; Biden casts doubt on the claims Very interesting change coming from Putin. Maybe it’s influenced by China’s Xi 3rd term? https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/28/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html (edited)
CNBC
Putin says there is ‘no need’ to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine; Bi…
Western and Russian leaders exchanged claims and accusations over each other’s willingness to use nuclear weapons.
October 30, 2022
- @MeDavid
I:8 Putin says there is ‘no need’ to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine; Biden casts doubt on the claims Very interesting change coming from Putin. Maybe it’s influenced by China’s Xi 3rd term? https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/28/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html (edited)
Pirate Captain — 10/30/2022 10:04 PM
Hmm is this just based on this one article or the broader sentiment? I tried to google it but couldn’t find more sources confirming any deescalatory statements from putin. Edit: Found the remarks on a conference now. I think as long as there are no physical movements of any nuclear weapons the possibility of anything drastic happening stays low. The current threat of russia seems to be more on the side of detonating a dirty nuclear bomb in a false flag operation. (Which is more deescalatory than previous threat of a tactical nuclear weapon) I think they are using those threats to try to stop ukraine pressing them to hard e.g. west of cherson. (edited)
November 1, 2022
MeDavid — 11/01/2022 3:11 PM
I:6 Russia finished it’s mobilisation by recruiting 300,000, of which 87,000 have already been deployed to the confilct zone. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-senator-suggests-putin-might-not-issue-decree-ending-mobilisation-2022-11-01/
Reuters
Kremlin says it will not issue a decree ending Russian mobilisation
Russia does not need a presidential decree to formalise the completion of a partial mobilisation of reservists to fight in Ukraine, and none will be issued, the Kremlin said on Tuesday.
- [3:13 PM]
Oligarch renounces Russian citizenship over Ukraine war https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/31/oligarch-renounces-tinkov-russian-citizenship-ukraine-war
the Guardian
Oligarch renounces Russian citizenship over Ukraine war
Oleg Tinkov, who has previously spoken out against the conflict, says he ‘won’t be associated with a fascist country’
- [3:15 PM]
Iran is preparing to send additional weapons including ballistic missiles to Russia to use in Ukraine, western officials say https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/01/politics/iran-missiles-russia/index.html
CNN
Iran is preparing to send additional weapons including ballistic mi…
Iran is preparing to send approximately 1,000 additional weapons, including surface-to-surface short range ballistic missiles and more attack drones, to Russia to use in its war against Ukraine, officials from a western country that closely monitors Iran’s weapons program told CNN.
November 3, 2022
MeDavid — 11/03/2022 1:52 PM
I:7 Senior Russian military leaders discussed last month how and when they might use nuclear weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine, two US officials have told CBS News. Vladimir Putin was not involved in the talks, they told the BBC’s US partner. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63488547 (edited)
BBC News
Russian commanders discussed using nuclear arms in Ukraine, says US
Military leaders are said to have talked about how and when they might use the weapons in Ukraine.
1
November 5, 2022
MeDavid — 11/05/2022 8:47 AM
I:8 Russia may soon withdraw from Kherson region Watch first 4 minutes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-F-9NnPqMU
Ukraine suggests Russian forces may soon withdraw from occupied Khe…
1
- [8:49 AM]
(More information to back that claim) A Kremlin-installed official in the region, Kirill Stremousov, told Russian media that Moscow was “likely” to pull its troops from the area. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63523043 (edited)
BBC News
Ukraine war: Putin endorses evacuations from occupied Kherson
The Russian leader approves of civilians leaving “dangerous” areas of a key city in southern Ukraine.
MeDavid — 11/05/2022 8:58 AM
I:7 0:40 - 1:26 Soldier perspective 2:50 - 3:30 a General talking about Kherson situation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvPYBUKn3fk (edited)
Russia to withdraw from Ukrainian city of Kherson, western official…
- @MeDavid
I:8 Russia may soon withdraw from Kherson region Watch first 4 minutes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-F-9NnPqMU
Pirate Captain — 11/05/2022 11:33 AM
Cool, good find.
November 7, 2022
MeDavid — 11/07/2022 3:34 PM
I:6 The Ukraine war is deepening Russia’s ties with North Korea as well as Iran Moscow’s growing need for armaments from Pyongyang is likely to lead to greater alignment of diplomatic and military interests This could be a sign that Russia expects the war to continue for some time https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/07/russia-ukraine-war-iran-north-korea-arms-ties
the Guardian
The Ukraine war is deepening Russia’s ties with North Korea as well…
Moscow’s growing need for armaments from Pyongyang is likely to lead to greater alignment of diplomatic and military interests
- [3:37 PM]
I:7 Russia may be trying to set a trap for Ukraine by pretending to withdraw from Kherson “Russian troops are trying hard to convince everyone they are retreating but at the same time we are seeing objective evidence that they are staying,” https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-kherson-russia-retreat-trap-news-latest-update-withdrawal-1757369
Newsweek
Why Ukraine is suspicious over Russia’s Kherson withdrawal
A Ukrainian spokesperson over the weekend warned that there is evidence Russians are attempting to stay in the city in order to trick Ukrainian troops.
1
November 8, 2022
MeDavid — 11/08/2022 8:34 PM
I:6 Chinese authorities ‘drop EU council chief’s speech criticising war in Ukraine’ This could provide some information on China’s stance in relation to Russia-Ukraine war https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/08/china-shanghai-trade-fair-charles-michel-european-council-speech (edited)
the Guardian
Chinese authorities ‘drop EU council chief’s speech criticising war…
European diplomats say Charles Michel video referring to Russia’s ‘illegal’ and ‘brutal’ invasion was withdrawn from trade fair
MeDavid — 11/08/2022 8:44 PM
I:6 Russian troops slam generals over ‘incomprehensible battle’ that reportedly killed 300 in Donetsk Interesting article, worth reading if anyone wants to get a better understanding of the Russian army’s planning, mistakes, etc. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/08/europe/russia-ukraine-donetsk-heavy-losses-letter-intl/index.html
CNN
Russian troops slam generals over ‘incomprehensible battle’ that re…
Russian troops have denounced an “incomprehensible battle” in Donetsk after apparently sustaining heavy losses during a week of intense fighting in the key eastern region of Ukraine.
MeDavid — 11/08/2022 9:38 PM
I:8 Why is Russia Retreating from Kherson. Great video showing Russia’s hard situation in Kherson. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Omh3heYZxXg
Why is Russia Retreating from Kherson
November 9, 2022
Aron~Bluesky — 11/09/2022 4:43 PM
I=8 -Russia has ordered its troops to leave Ukraine’s city of Kherson. -Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in a televised briefing Wednesday ordered the troops to withdraw from the western bank of the Dnipro River and move to the other shore. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/russia-orders-troops-to-leave-ukrainian-city-of-kherson-1.1843945
BNN
Russia Orders Troops to Leave Ukrainian City of Kherson - BNN Bloom…
Russia ordered its troops to leave Ukraine’s city of Kherson, the first major regional center seized in its invasion, in a highly symbolic setback for President Vladimir Putin.
November 11, 2022
MeDavid — 11/11/2022 2:54 PM
I:8 Russia suddenly announces its readiness for negotiations “taking into account current state of affairs” Article contains the source of information and the quotes. https://news.yahoo.com/russia-suddenly-announces-readiness-negotiations-135100634.html (edited)
Russia suddenly announces its readiness for negotiations "taking in…
Maria Zakharova, Spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, has said that Russia is ready to negotiate with Ukraine “taking into account the current state of affairs”. Source: Kremlin-aligned news outlet RIA Novosti (RIA News) Quote: "We are still open to negotiations.
MeDavid — 11/11/2022 3:03 PM
I:8 Russia could be planning to destroy Kakhova dam in their retreat. Good point of view, with examples. Read section “Is Russia preparing to destroy the dam?” ( middle of page) https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/11/10/explainer-could-ukraines-kakhovka-dam-be-destroyed-in-russias-kherson-retreat-a79325
The Moscow Times
Explainer: Could Ukraine’s Kakhovka Dam Be Destroyed in Russia’s Kh…
The Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine has become the focus of intense speculation as Kyiv’s forces have pushed forward with a counteroffensive in the Kherson region in recent weeks. And this speculation has only intensified since Russia announced Wednesday that it would withdraw its forces from the right bank of the Dnipro River, abandoning the …
November 13, 2022
- @MeDavid
I:8 Russia suddenly announces its readiness for negotiations “taking into account current state of affairs” Article contains the source of information and the quotes. https://news.yahoo.com/russia-suddenly-announces-readiness-negotiations-135100634.html (edited)
Pirate Captain — 11/13/2022 1:18 PM
Hmm reading the background info here it doesn’t seem that this is any change in the Russian stance. Is there something meaningful about the new statement?
November 15, 2022
MeDavid — 11/15/2022 2:30 PM
I feel that until now Putin’s had a different attitude when it comes to negotiation, wanting instead to take as much as possible, and only then negotiating. As far as I’ve read about the war until now, that’s how I see things. But now, as Russia is facing harder and harder situations, I feel like Putin is starting to open up to negotiations, not as two equal power, but also not with as much superiority as before.
Pirate Captain — 11/15/2022 6:45 PM
I recently watched those two good TLDR Videos which describe the current situation of the war and potential next steps quite well: https://youtu.be/x1H3-a92Las https://youtu.be/I82qBZfwmw4 They also describe that Moscow signaled more willingness to talk. Overall i think a peace at the current moment is very unlikely but the risk of a nuclear miscalculation significantly eased after the Russian retreat from Kherson and the start of their new strategy to attack Ukrainian Infrastructure and hope that winter will help them.
Can Putin Survive Russia’s Retreat in Kherson
After Kherson, Where Will Ukraine Go Next?
1
November 17, 2022
MeDavid — 11/17/2022 3:14 PM
I:10 Ukraine says it’s not to blame for Poland missile strike Best article to understand the whole situation. To be noted that investigations are still continuing. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/17/ukraine-says-its-not-to-blame-for-poland-missile-strike.html (edited)
CNBC
Ukraine refuses to accept it was behind Poland missile strike, desp…
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskky, says he had “no doubt” that Ukraine was not to blame for a missile strike that hit a Polish village Tuesday evening.
November 25, 2022
MeDavid — 11/25/2022 6:33 PM
I:7 Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine is pushing out one of Russia’s biggest tech giants This would come as a blow to Russia, making it’s tech sector even more affected since the start of the war. May not happen because of the need for Russian confirmation. Read in full. https://www.insider.com/russian-tech-giant-wants-out-of-country-ukraine-war-rages-2022-11
Insider
Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine is pushing out one of Russia’s…
Yandex, Russia’s biggest tech company, wants to cut ties with the country because of the Ukrainian invasion, according to a New York Times report.
1
November 28, 2022
Pirate Captain — 11/28/2022 11:30 AM
Min 2:10 Russia is loosing reportedly 700-800 men a day forcing their troops forwards https://youtu.be/U91cWpnmkL0
Analysis: Russia using ‘human wave’ troops in Donbas
November 30, 2022
MeDavid — 11/30/2022 3:55 PM
I:6 Setbacks in Ukraine war diminish Russia’s clout with regional allies Very interesting article talking about the change in decisions that mainly central-Asian countries are taking. This comes as a response to Russia’s sanctions and it looks like these countries have more freedom than before. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/30/russia-kazakhstan-regional-neighbors-ukraine/ (edited)
December 2, 2022
MeDavid — 12/02/2022 7:06 PM
Russia demands annexations recognised before talks Quite unrealistic demands https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63832151
BBC News
Ukraine war: Russia demands annexations recognised before talks
The Kremlin says the West’s refusal to recognise its seizure of Ukrainian land makes talks harder.
1
December 7, 2022
Aron~Bluesky — 12/07/2022 6:44 PM
I=7 President Vladimir Putin called Russia’s nuclear arsenal a “deterrent factor” in conflicts, stopping short of pledging not to be the first to use them. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-07/putin-calls-russia-s-nukes-deterrent-factor-as-war-risk-rises
December 10, 2022
Pirate Captain — 12/10/2022 5:02 PM
Great video about implications for Russia coming from Finish and Swedish Nato Membership https://youtu.be/si9Phc9ArpU
Why Finland Joining NATO Checkmates Russia
December 13, 2022
Aron~Bluesky — 12/13/2022 10:09 PM
I=8 -The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week. -The advanced long-range air defense system is highly effective at intercepting ballistic and cruise missiles. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/13/politics/us-patriot-missile-defense-system-ukraine/index.html
CNN
Exclusive: US finalizing plans to send Patriot missile defense syst…
The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official.
1
December 22, 2022
Pirate Captain — 12/22/2022 9:50 AM
Good speech https://youtu.be/3fSNai6h_gc
Russian tyranny has lost control over us: Ukraine Pres. Volodymyr Z…
June 6, 2023
Pirate Captain — 06/06/2023 4:27 PM
The destruction of the nova kakhovka dam was a war crime. The Kakhovka Reservoir is among the 50 largest in the world. (1) There will be severe flooding affecting tens of thousands of people and potentially killing hundreds or thousands (2) Before blowing up the damn Russians kept filing it up from 13 to 17meters which makes the consequences worse than previously modeled. (3) Cherson and the Saporischschja powerplant are likely to be fine though. (3) The destruction of the dam comes at a time when ukrainians increased attacks and might have started their major offensive. (1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_reservoirs_by_volume?wprov=sfti1 (2) https://youtu.be/XdoMQz6Cv84 (3) https://youtu.be/CFZKUPaB0sY
The classification of a reservoir by volume is not as straightforward as it may seem. As the name implies, water is held in reserve by a reservoir so it can serve a purpose. For example, in Thailand, reservoirs tend to store water from the wet season to prevent flooding, then release it during the dry season for farmers to grow rice. For this t…
Who is going to blow up the Kakhovka Dam? Analysis and Consequences…
Nuclear Power Plant endangered: Nova Kakhovka Dam broken, the Reser…
Source and knowledge collection in Wiki page.
