This topic discusses the upcoming United Internet Q4 2025 earnings, including our outlook and a summary of the results. You can find our full Notion article here:
Earnings date: March 19, 2026
Time of Earnings release: 7:30 CET
Time of 1&1 Analysts Call: 1.00 pm CET
Time of United Internet Analysts Call: 02.30 pm CET
Cautiously bullish outlook on United Internet ahead of Q4 2025 earnings mainly due to current weakness at IONOS, pricing pressure at 1&1 and uncertainty on low-band frequencies
I am cautiously bullish on United Internet’s Q4 2025 earnings. My estimates (Valuation Model- Google Sheets) are based on comentaries from competitors, the fact that the industry is immune to macro pressures, guidance update by IONOS, positive network tests, end of customer migration and stable revenue from other business divisions. Here is a description of my bullish and bearish factors:
Bullish arguments
The industry is largely immune to macro pressures: United Internet has consistently maintained (page 24) that its business is non-cyclical and its performance during times of macro uncertainty confirms it. Additionally, business segments such as GMX and Web.De have stable revenue growth while 1&1 Versatile continues to expand.
Promotional activity has eased in the past couple of weeks: Deutsche Telecom and Telefonica Deutscheland pointed out in their most recent earnings call that promotional activity in Germany is starting to ease (Q4 2025 United Internet Earnings (Notion)). This positive trend should support 1&1’s pricing in 2026.
Broadband conditions are improving: Deutsche Telecom, Vodafone and Telefonica Deutschland also said broadband business conditions are improving but growth is likely to come from price increases rather than volume (Q4 2025 United Internet Earnings(Notion)). The improving trends in the broadband division are likely to boost 1&1’s revenue from 2026 as was guided by management in its Q3 2025 earnings (Notion).
Positive network tests: Third-party tests of 1&1’s network have been very positive (forum post). As such, I don’t expect any customer churn following the completion of customer migration from Telefonica Deutschland to its own network.
Margins at IONOS continue to improve: Margins at IONOS continue to improve, offeseting 1&1 network costs (Valuation Model (Google Sheets)).
Rumors on potential acquisition of 1&1 by Telefonica: United Internet and 1&1 shares have been highly volatile recently as reports indicating Telefonica is planning to acquire 1&1 keep changing (forum post). If 1&1 or United Internet confirm the potential acquisition or state that there are ongoing discussions, shares of both companies could rise sharply.
Potential upside from OPEN RAN: Even if 1&1 is not sold, we remain bullish on 1&1 OPEN RAN’s potential. OPEN RAN may materially lower costs and make 1&1’s network outperform that of rivals, leading to market share gain. In fact, it’s now emerging that one of the reasons Telefonica is interesting in acquiring 1&1 is its OPEN RAN technology (forum post). In my opinion, the fact that 1&1 now has 27% coverage (forum post) with only around 2,000 antenna sites (almost 5x comparable number from rivals) may be the first sign that its network quality is superior (to be researched further).
EUR 100 M cost-savings in 2026: 1&1 expects to save EUR 100 M in 2026 which was associated with customer migration from Telefonica Deutschland to own network in 2025 (page 7).
Bearish aerguments
Pricing pressure at 1&1: While promotional activity is starting to ease, the incumbents also noted that Q4 2025 was marked by continued pricing pressure (Q4 2025 United Internet Earnings (Notion)).
Uncertainty regarding the low-band spectrum: It’s now three months into 2026 and yet the incumbents haven’t given 1&1 access to the low-band spectrum (forum post). They were expected to avail the low-band frequencies by the end of 2025. The low-band spectrum is crucial for 1&1’s expansion since it enables it to penetrate walls. Without it, 1&1 will have to rely more on National Roaming, which is more expensive and thus limiting the upside from having own network.
Lowered 2025 guidance at IONOS: IONOS lowered its 2025 revenue guidance in December 17 by EUR 25 million due to delays in customer projects (forum post). IONOS had given new customers discount in Q3 2025 to encourage them to sign up and was expecting price improvements going forward, but this seems not to have materialized as expected (Q3 2025 United Internet Earnings (Notion)).
German telecom market is increasingly mature: Incumbents pointed out in their latest earnings that the German telecom market is increasingly mature (Q4 2025 United Internet Earnings (Notion)) as a result, strong growth at 1&1 through new contracts is unlikely in the near-term unless their is consolidation or OPEN RAN leads to material market share gain.
Here are analysts estimates, my estimates and management guidance for Q4 2025 and FY2026
