Q4 2023 Sixt Earnings

Investments
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This topic discusses Sixt Q4 2023 earnings. Our earnings preparations and full summary of the results can be found in the Wiki:

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  • Sixt says its 2023 revenue was 3.62 billion euros, meaning its Q4 2023 revenue grew by 16.9% y/y to 870 million euros, exceeding management’s guidance and analysts estimate of 850 million euros and 823 million euros, respectively.
  • Its Q4 2023 EBT rose 18.6% y/y to 51 million euros, lower than their midpoint guidance of 67 million euros and analysts estimate of 55 million euros.
  • The company is guiding Q1 2024 EBT of -15 million to -28 million (Q1 2023: EUR 33.3 million)- due to higher interest expense and depreciation costs and a significant increase in revenue.
  • Sixt is guiding 2024 EBT of 400 to 520 million euros (-1% y/y at the midpoint), my forecast was 510 million euros.
  • Sixt said it expects 2024 revenue to grow significantly year-over-year due to expected high demand and continued international expansion.

https://www.eqs-news.com/news/corporate/sixt-grows-by-18-to-record-revenue-in-2023-and-achieves-second-best-result-in-the-companys-history/2006079

Assessment
The language in this report imply Sixt’s Q1 and full year 2024 revenue growth might come above expectations, which is good considering that 2024 was expected to witness soft travel demand, continued decline in prices of used cars and normalization of rental pricing. However, its EBT performance in Q4 and outlook for Q1 and full year 2024 are not good.

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  • Buy, €140: Analyst Christian Obst of Baader Bank said sixt sales and EBT results met expectations and that its outlook for 2024 is unlikely to cause any major changes in market expectations [1].
  • Buy, €135: Analyst Constantin Hesse of Jefferies said Sixt’s overall solid key data met consensus estimates and that the 2024 outlook could lead to a moderate positive price reaction [2].
  • Buy, €155: Analyst Marc-Rene Tonn of Warburg Research said Sixt’s 2023 results met expectations and that the company is targeting strong sales growth in 2024. He added that demand remains strong and Sixt should benefit from its international expansion, especially the U.S and a broader range such as car subscriptions [3].
  • Buy, €115->€110: DZ Bank analyst, Dirk Schlamp said EBT was slightly disappointing but views the sales growth outlook and statements on demand as positive [4].

I view Marc-Rene Tonn and Christian Obst as the most credible analysts covering Sixt [4].

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