Q3 2025 Meta Platforms Earnings

Investments
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Tinuti Digital Ads Benchmark report signals Meta’s Q3 2025 revenue could grow at 23%-24%

  • Ad spent growth on Meta Platforms by Tinuiti advertisers accelerated to 14% in Q3 2025 from 12% in Q2, impression grew 16% y/y- the strongest growth since Q4 2023 while CPM fell 2% y/y (Q2 2025: -0.5%).
  • Ad spend on Facebook rose 9% y/y (Q2 2025: +12% y/y), impression grew 15% y/y (Q2 2025: +18% y/y) while CPM fell 6% (Q2 2025: -0.5% y/y) due to rising Reels inventory (Reels carry lower CPM than Feed and Stories ads).
  • Spend on Instagram ads rose 21% y/y (Q2 2025: +11%)- largely due to weak comps, impression jumped 9% y/y- the strongest growth since Q1 2024 while CPM growth decelerated to 11% from 12%- also due to rising share of Reels inventory.
  • The share of Advantage+ shopping campaigns’ (ASCs) slipped again to 27% from 35% in Q2 2025.
  • Ad spend growth on TikTok fell 4% y/y (Q2 2025:-20%), impressions rose 23% y/y (Q2 2025:+3%) while CPM fell 22% (Q2 2025:-22%).
  • Ad spend on Google search rose 10% y/y (Q2 2025:+11%), click through rate (CTR) accelerated to 11% (Q2 2025: +7%) while cost per click (CPC) fell 1% (Q2 2025: +3%).

Assessment

Over the most recent seven quarters, Meta’s reported revenue growth has outperformed Tinuiti’s Meta ad spend growth by an average of 9.35%. Based on the Tinuiti report, which has historically been a reliable indicator of Meta’s revenue growth, Meta’s Q2 2025 revenue could grow at 23%-24% .

Over the most recent seven quarters, Meta’s reported ad price per ad has outperformed Tinuiti’s Meta CPM by an average of 8.25%. As such, Meta’s ad price per ad could grow by around 6% in Q3 2025, a deceleration from 9% in Q2 2025. Given Meta’s focus on reels, I expect ad price per ad to continue decelerating in the near-term. Hence, Meta’s ad revenue growth in the near-term will likely be driven by market share gain (due to rising impression) and not CPM growth.

I like that Instagram impressions rebounded during the quarter, reinforcing third-party reports of solid engagement growth on the platform (Notion).

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