This topic covers Match Group’s Q3 2025 earnings. A preview of the results will be posted here. For the full earnings preview and earnings call summary, see the Notion:
Earnings date: November 4, 2025
Time of Earnings release: 4:00 PM ET
Time of Analysts Call: 5:00 p.m. ET
I am cautiously bullish on Match Group’s Q3 2025 earnings. My estimates (Google Sheets) take into account continued decline in Tinder paying users, strong performance at Hinge, FX tailwind, and revenue guidance beat in the last two quarters.
Here is a description of by bullish and bearish sentiments:
Bullish arguments:
Strong performance at Hinge: Hinge continues to deliver strong performance, with its revenue growth more than offsetting the decline in Tinder’s revenue. In Q2 2025, Hinge’s revenue rose by $33.9 million while Tinder’s revenue fell by $18.7 million.
Price optimization: Match Group optimized prices in Q2 2025 at Hinge, Tinder and Evergreen. Its CFO also said in the Q2 2025 earnings call (Notion) that they continue testing various merchandizing and monetization strategies. I expect these efforts to be the main driver of revenue growth in Q3 2025.
Some signs of improving user trends: There are some signs that user engagement at Tinder is improving. According to Apptopia data which was reported by Global Dating Insights, Tinder’s daily active users (DAUs) in the US dropped by 5.4% y/y in Q3 2025, a deceleration from 8% in Q3 2024 (Notion). Similarly, according to Goldman Sachs, Tinder has begun seeing improvement in international user trends (Notion).
FX tailwind: Match Group generates more than 55% of its revenue outside the U.S. As a result, the recent year over year strengthening of foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar should provide a tailwind in Q3. Management is guiding FX tailwind of 1% in Q3 2025. FX guidance for Q2 2025 had come in line with the guidance (Google Sheets), hence I also expect a 1% tailwind.
Cost-savings from restructuring: New CEO Spencer Rascoff has centralized some functions and reduced the workforce by 13%. Management expects these changes to generate $45 million in cost savings in 2025 and $100 million annually starting in 2026.
Guidance beat in the last two quarters: Match Group beat management’s upper point revenue guidance in Q2 2025 and Q1 2025 by an average of 0.3% (Google Sheets). Similarly, in the latest six quarters, it has missed management’s mid-point revenue guidance only twice, in Q4 2024 and Q3 2024.
Potential tailwinds from alternative payment system: Match Group expect $65 million adjusted operating income tailwind from alternative payment system in 2026 (Notion). It also expect some tailwinds in 2025 (especially Q4). The alternative payment system’s tailwind will help compensate potential headwinds from the rollout of new features.
Bearish arguments:
Continued decline in Tinder paying users: Despite some signs of improving user trends at Tinder, the app continues to lose users due to a combination of swipe fatigue, Gen Z’s need for authenticity, and competitive pressure (Google Sheets). Management does not expect this trend to reverse until new product initiatives begin gaining traction.
Short-term headwinds from new features: Tinder recently announced that it will expand Facial Recognition Feature across the US in the coming months. Similarly, according to Morgan Stanley, Tinder is testing changes to its recommendation engine, potentially emphasizing relevance more than monetization (Notion). These changes are likely to cause customer churn in the short-term.
Execution risks are high: The new CEO, Spencer Rascoff is championing for faster rollout of new features. According to internal reports, Tinder now ships code weekly compared to a twice-monthly schedule in the past. The swift rollout of new features may lead to buggy features. Similarly, he is making decisions quite fast, which may lead to poor decisions.
Here are management’s and analysts’ expectations for Q3 2025;
Management guidance for Q3 2025 revenue: $910-$920 million (+1.6% to 2.7%)
Management guidance for Q3 2025 adjusted operating income: $330-$335 million (-3.8% to -2.3%)
Analysts’ estimate for Q3 2025 revenue: $912.4 million (+1.9%).
Analysts’ estimate for Q3 2025 EPS: $0.64 (+25.5%).
Analysts’ estimate for Q4 2025 revenue: $882.1 million (+2.6%)
Analysts’ estimate for Q4 2025 EPS: $0.67 (+13.6%)
Confidence level and recommendation
My confidence level on the outlook is around 65% given the volatility surrounding the turnaround and the lack of enough insights on the quarter. As a result, I have a Hold rating on the stock. In the upcoming earnings call, I’ll be watching closely for updates on the product offensive, trends in Tinder’s user engagement, and other commentary on management’s execution.
I=10 Match Group beats revenue estimate and adjusted EBITDA guidance in Q3 2025, guides Q4 revenue below consensus estimate
Match Group’s Q3 2025 revenue rose 2% y/y to $914 million, exceeding lower-end of management’s guidance ($910-920 million) and beating analysts’ estimate of $912 million.
Adjusted EBITDA was $301 million but excluding $61 million legal settlement charge and $2 million of restructuring costs, it would have been $364 million- above management guidance of $330-335 million.
EPS came in at $0.62 but excluding the legal settlement charge, it would have been $0.85- above analysts estimate of $0.64.
Match Group is guiding Q4 2025 revenue in the range of $865-875 million, below analysts’ consensus estimate of $882 million and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $350 to $355 million, up 9% y/y at the midpoint.
Match Group shares are only up 0.6% pre-market at the time of writing this post.
Assessment
Q3 2025 revenue was within my mid-point estimate but EPS (excluding the legal charge) was significantly above by upper-point estimate of $0.64. Payer numbers and ARPUs did not deviate much from my estimates.
The Q4 guidance signals that payer trends are not expected to improve as I had expected (Valuation Model).
I felt like the earnings call was a bit cautious than in Q2. Based on the commentary on Project Aurora, it seems like they are being cautious on product launches and tests (i.e. they want to extensively test them first before launching them worldwide). This is obviously good and lowers our concerns that Rascoff might push for faster launches of products that could have issues and may be unsuitable. However, it also means the turnaround on Tinder user trends might take longer than expected. There was also no announcement of new game-changing products.
In Line, $38->$35: Evercore said Match Group provided a mixed Q4 guidance, with revenue 2% below consensus and EBITDA midpoint 3% above consensus. However, it pointed out that management provided early results from product tests and investments.
Equal Weight, $35->$33: Wells Fargo said ongoing product testing is weighing on near-term revenue growth. Wells is still awaiting signs of Tinder MAU growth/ payer inflection.
