This topic covers Bumble’s Q3 2025 earnings. A preview of the results will be posted here. For the full earnings preview and earnings call summary, see the Notion:
Earnings date: November 5, 2025
Time of Earnings release: 4:00 PM ET
Time of Analysts Call: 4:30 p.m. ET
I am bearish on Bumble’s Q3 2025 earnings. My estimates (Valuation Model) are mainly based on user and pricing trends. Here is a description of my bullish and bearish sentiments:
Bullish arguments
Price tailwind form lower-monetizing regions: Bumble’s average revenue per user (ARPU) rose 1.5% in Q2 2025 due to optimization of pricing in lower-monetizing regions (Q2 Bumble Earnings). I expect this strategy to also play out in Q3 2025.
Tailwinds from restructuring measures: Bumble expects to generate annual savings of $40 million, beginning as early as the second half of 2025 from the 13% workforce reduction. It expects to save around $100 million from the whole restructuring process (Notion). The cost-savings will help offset the headwinds associated with the turnaround process.
Revenue guidance beat in the most recent four quarters: Bumble has beaten mid-point revenue guidance by an average of 1.9% in the most recent four quarters (Google Sheets).
Bearish arguments
Headwind from Beehive Fit Framework: Bumble is assessing payer quality through its Beehive Fit Framework, which classifies daters into three groups: approve (high-quality daters), improve (daters showing effort to enhance their profiles), and remove (low-quality users who make no effort to improve and should be removed). Remove payers make up less than 10% of the payers or less than 425,000 based on Q3 2024 total payers. If Bumble removed these payers in Q3 2025, then the decline in payers may be material.
Headwind from safety and trust features: Bumble launched a number of safety and trust features including phone and ID verification, and mandatory selfie checks in August. These features are expected to cause friction when signing in/up leading to user churn (Notion).
Execution risks are high: Almost every senior executive at Bumble is new. 8 out of 10 members of the executive management and around 40% of other senior executives have been with the company for less than 1 year (Notion). This could cause cultural shock, leading to slow rollout of new features.
Bearish user engagement trends: According to Apptopia data reported by Global Dating Insights, Tinder’s daily active users (DAUs) in the US dropped by 6.4% y/y (Q3 2024: +16%). The report also indicates that Gen Z usage of the platform dropped significantly (Notion). A report by Goldman Sachs also indicate adverse user trends for Bumble in Q3 (Notion).
Restructuring costs: Bumble expect to incur approximately $13 million to $18 million of non-recurring charges related to the 30% workforce reduction announced in June 2025. The charges will be incurred in Q3 and Q4 of 2025 (Notion).
Earnings miss in 3 or the 4 most recent quarters: Bumble has missed EPS estimates in 3 of the 4 most recent quarters (Google Sheets). I don’t expect this quarter to be an exception, especially with the ongoing volatility associated with the turnaround measures.
Headwind from the shift from non-organic marketing:The shift from non-organic marketing strategy i.e. the end of performance marketing may cause payer trends to decline in the near-term. This assessment is shared by a number of analysts (Notion)
Here are management and analysts estimates for Q3 and Q4 2025:
Q3 2025 management guidance for revenue: $240-$248 million (-12.3% to -9.4%).
Q3 2025 management guidance for adjusted EBITDA: $79-$84 million (-4.4% to 1.7%).
Q3 2025 consensus analysts estimate for revenue: $244.8 million (-10.5%).
Q3 2025 consensus analysts estimate for EPS: $0.34
Q4 2025 analysts estimate for revenue: $233.3 million (-10.8%)
Recommendation
Given the volatility around the turnaround measures, I don’t expect any significant improvement in revenue and earnings in the near-term. As I result, I recommend a Hold rating as we wait for more insights on the product rollout (and their benefits) as well management’s execution.
If you try to reconcile your EBITDA expectation of $55-58M and compare it with management guidance for adjusted EBITA of $79-$84M are the two numbers approximately in line? In other words by what does management adjust and how large are the adjustments? If there is a difference between your expectation and management expectation what causes it?
Do you have a theory why your EPS expectation of $0.20-0.24 cents is considerably smaller than the expectation of analysts? Like which items do you see differently?
What makes you expect that ARPU can again be adjust upwards? (I think i remember that the commentary in the Q2 2025 call was more that it was more like one off-adjustments but i could be wrong and it is a continuous thing)
Do you think that Bumble would cancel any paying users? From my understanding they want to get rid of the button 10% of users (often non paying) but not of the paying ones. If they would indeed cancel so many paying users wouldn’t the hit the Q3 2025 revenue be way larger?
How credible to you think Apptopia data is?
I also noted down a question directly in the valuation model.
