Q2 2026 Meta Platforms Earnings

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This topic discusses the upcoming Q2 2026 Meta Platforms earnings. It will include our final assessment and decision before the earnings release. We will also summarize the results here. You can find our earnings preparation and full summary of the results in the Notion:

Earnings date: July 29, 2026
Time of Earnings release: 4:00 PM ET
Time of Analysts Call: 4:30 p.m. ET

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Tinuiti Ads Benchmark report implies Meta Q2 2026 revenue growth of approximately 27%-32%

  • Ad spent growth on Meta Platforms by Tinuiti advertisers decelerated to 11% y/y in Q2 2026 from 13% in Q1 2026, CPM rose 10% y/y- a rebound from three straight quarters of decline while ad impressions rose 2% after four straight quarters of double-digit growth.
  • Ad spend growth on Facebook rose 7% y/y (Q1 2026: +4%), ad impressions fell 5% y/y after averaging 13% growth over the last six quarters, while CPM rose 13% y/y versus a decline of 4% last quarter.
  • Ad spend growth on Instagram rose 17% y/y versus growth of 28% in Q1, CPM was flat y/y (Q1 2026: -3%) while ad impressions rose 17% (Q1 2026: +31%).
  • Ad spend growth on TikTok rose 31% y/y (Q1 2026; +14%) as advertiser concerns over its future fades, ad impressions rose 13% (Q1 2026: +2%) while CPM grew 16% versus versus growth of 11% in Q1 2026.
  • Ad spend growth on Google search grew <14% y/y, roughly unchanged from Q1, click through rate (CTR) rose 13% (Q1 2026:+14%), while cost per click (CPC) was muted at 1%.

Assessment
Tinuiti Ads Benchmark report has historically been reliable in predicting Meta’s revenue growth.

Based on this Tinuiti report, I estimate Meta’s Q2 2026 revenue growth at 27–32%, above management’s guidance range of 22.1–28.4%:

  • In Q2 2025, Q3 2025, Q4 2025, and Q1 2026, Meta’s reported revenue growth exceeded Tinuiti’s Meta platform ad spend growth by 10, 12, 15, and 20 percentage points, respectively. While this trend suggests Meta could outperform Tinuiti’s ad spend data by around 27%, the company also faces tougher year-over-year comparisons. Notably, Meta’s revenue growth rate in Q2 2025 was 22% versus 16% in Q1 2025. Extrapolating from this, Meta’s revenue could grow by around 32% in Q2 2026 (11%+27%-6%).

  • Alternatively, the average outperformance in the most recent three quarters were 14% in Q1 2026 and 12% in Q4 2025. Using a recent average outperformance of 16 percentage points suggests revenue growth of roughly 27%.

It’s good to see that despite the rebound in ad spend on TikTok, ad spend on Meta Platforms remains strong.

Tinuiti CPM numbers may not be reliable for Meta Platforms given they have often deviated significantly from the actuals.

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I think taking better and better outperformance for our estimates is risky as we cannot catch the point where things start turning.

Do we have Tinuitis numbers vs. Meta actual numbers in a Google sheet overtime? I would like to have a short look how both developed in the last couple of quarters