Tinuti Digital Ads Benchmark report signals Meta’s Q2 2025 revenue could grow at 15%-17%
- Ad spent growth on Meta Platforms by Tinuiti advertisers accelerated to 12% y/y in Q2 2025 from 11% in Q1, impressions rose 13% y/y, the fastest growth since Q1 2024 while CPM fell 0.5% y/y- unchanged from last year.
- Ad spend on Facebook rose 12% y/y (Q1 2025: +11% y/y), impressions grew 18% y/y, the biggest increase since Q3 2024 while CPM fell 0.5% (Q1 2025: +1% y/y) due to growth in newer inventories like Reels.
- Spend on Instagram ads grew 11% y/y in Q2 (Q1 2025: +7% y/y), impressions declined 1% (Q1 2025: -6% y/y) while CPM increased 12% y/y (Q1 2025: +14% y/y)- the slowest growth since Q1 2024.
- The share of Advantage+ shopping campaigns’ (ASCs) slipped to 35% from 38% in Q1 2025.
- Ad spend growth on TikTok fell 20% y/y in Q2 (Q1 2025: -11% y/y) due to uncertainty over the app’s future, impressions rose 3% y/y (Q1 2025: +27% y/y) while CPM fell 22% y/y (Q1 2025: -30% y/y).
- Ad spend on Google search rose 11% y/y in Q2 (Q1 2025: +9% y/y), click through rate (CTR) accelerated to 7% y/y from 4% in Q1 2025 while cost per click (CPC) slowed to 3% y/y from 5% in Q1 2025.
Assessment
Over the most recent six quarters, Meta’s reported revenue growth has outperformed Tinuiti’s Meta ad spend growth by an average of 9.25%. However, from Q4 2024, the deviation narrowed significantly to 6%. The average deviation for revenue growth in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 was 5%. Based on the Tinuiti report, which has historically been a reliable indicator of Meta’s revenue growth, Meta’s Q1 2025 revenue could grow at 15%-17% .
It’s not good to see Meta’s CPM starting to weaken. Maybe this is driven by the uncertainty caused by the tariffs. Over the past six quarters, Meta’s reported average price per ad has exceeded CPM reported by Tinuiti by an average of 7.5%. Therefore, Meta’s Q2 2025 average price per ad could grow 6%-7% y/y, a deceleration from 10% in Q1.
The share of spend on Advantage+ Shopping (ASC) decelerated during the quarter, raising concerns that advertiser complaints over the past year may now be impacting its utilization. Insights shared during the earnings call regarding ASC performance will help clarify whether advertiser concerns are affecting its momentum.
Meta Platforms continues to benefit from TikTok’s shrinking share of digital ad spend.