This topic covers Bumble’s Q2 2025 earnings. A preview of the results will be posted here. For the full earnings preview and results summary, see the wiki:
Earnings date: August 6, 2025
Time of Earnings release: 4:00 PM ET
Time of Analysts Call: 4:30 p.m. ET
I am cautiously bullish on Bumble’s Q2 2025 earnings. My estimates are mainly based recent user and pricing trends and recent management guidance. Here is a description of my bullish and bearish sentiments:
Bullish
Recently raised Q2 guidance: On June 23, 2025, Bumble raised its Q2 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $244 million to $249 million, up from its prior range of $235 million to $243 million. Management also raised adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 to a range or $88 million to $93 million from the range of $79 million to $84 million. Given that the company likely had visibility into most of its Q2 operating metrics by that date, there is a strong likelihood that actual results will fall within the updated guidance range.
Tailwind from restructuring measures: Bumble expects cost savings from its restructuring measures to accrue in the near term. For example, during its Q1 2025 earnings call, the company stated that it had identified $20 million in marketing cost savings for Q2 2025. Additionally, the 13% workforce reduction is expected to generate annual savings of $40 million, beginning as early as the second half of 2025.
Bearish
Near-term management outlook: Bumble’s management expects their focus on the turnaround to lead to fewer users in the near-term.
Limited near-term tailwind from new products: A recent Bloomberg Intelligence survey found that AI features launched by Bumble and Match Group have yet to resonate with Gen Z. As such, it could take a while for Bumble’s AI products to improve the quality of the platform.
Execution risks are high: The restructuring measures being introduced by its new CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd could take a while to materialize, leading to volatility in key operating performance metrics.
Analysts are cautious: Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Citi analysts welcomed the restructuring measures but cautioned that it could take a while for the turnaround to materialize.
