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Sixt beats revenue and earnings estimates, reaffirms 2026 guidance, but rising fleet expenses remain a major headwind to earnings upside
- Sixt’s Q1 2026 revenue rose 8.3% y/y to €929 m, exceeding my estimate of €917 m, EBT came in at €2 m versus my estimate of -€4 m while EPS of €0.03 exceeded my estimate of -€0.07.
- Sixt reaffirmed its 2026 guidance, expecting revenue to grow by 4% to 7.5% y/y to €4,450-4,600 m (midpoint: €4,525 m) and EBT margin of around 10% versus my base revenue estimate of €4,661 and EBT of €457.
- Sixt revenue from Germany rose 11.8% y/y to €284 m (estimate: €264 m or +7.9%), revenue from Europe rose 16.2% to €345 m (estimate: 325 m or +9.4%), revenue from North America fell 1.9% to €310 m (estimate: €328 m or +3.8%).
- Fleet expenses continue to dampen the earnings, rising 19.3% y/y to €266 m (my estimate: €252 m or +13% y/y).
- Depreciation and amortization expense fell 8.3% y/y to €186 m, roughly in line with my estimate.
- Sixt said they have launched its Sixt ONE Loyalty program in all the 13 corporate countries and around 1 m members have joined it, up from 300k as at March 2026.
- Sixt’s preference shares are up 2.6% following the earnings results.
Assessment
While strong quarterly results were stable, with better-than-expected revenue growth in Europe (including Germany) offsetting less-than-expected revenue growth in North America, fleet expenses continue rising significantly faster than revenue growth. However, I like that repairs, maintenance and reconditioning costs only rose 5% y/y during the quarter, a deceleration from 17% last quarter. This may indicate that the measures put in place by management may be working. The major driver of the fleet expenses seem to be those associated with infleeting such as insurance and registration fees.
The strong acceleration in Europe (including Germany) revenue growth may have been driven by flight reroutings from Middle East to Europe and rebound in economic growth as noted by management in its analyst presentation (opportunities section, page 12).
North America FX-neutral revenue rose 9.2% y/y, below my estimate of around 13%. FX headwinds were 11.1%, versus my estimate of 9.1%. However, the reported y/y revenue decline was stable relative to Q4 2025. Since FX headwinds worsened by at least 1 percentage point versus Q4 2025, FX-neutral revenue growth likely improved by at least 1 percentage point as well.
Given that rental vehicle depreciation continues to improve, North America revenue is stabilizing (with FX headwinds likely temporary), and I continue to believe Sixt can rein in costs in the near term, I maintain a Buy rating on the preference shares, especially on further weakness.
Q1 2026 Sixt Earnings (Notion)