I=8
Tinuiti Ads Benchmark report imply Meta Q1 2026 revenue growth of 30%-32%
- Ad spent growth on Meta Platforms by Tinuiti advertisers accelerated to 13% y/y in Q1 2026 from 9% in Q4 2025, CPM fell 3% in Q1 versus a decline of 7% in Q4 while ad impressions rose 17% y/y for the second straight quarter.
- Ad spend growth on Facebook rose 4% y/y (Q4 2025: +3%), ad impression growth decelerated to 8% from 19% in Q4 while CPM growth decelerated from -13% y/y to -4% y/y as Reels impression stalls.
- Ad spend growth on Instagram rose 28% y/y the fastest growth since Q1 2024, CPM fell 3% y/y the first decline since Q3 2023 while ad impressions rose 31% y/y versus growth of 7% in Q4 2025 as share of Reels ads continue to grow.
- Ad spend growth on TikTok rose 14% y/y (Q4 2025; +1%), ad impressions rose 2% (Q4 2025: +8%) while CPM grew 11% versus a decline of 6% in Q4 2025.
- Ad spend growth on Google search grew 14% y/y (Q4 2025: +13%), click through rate (CTR) rose 14% (Q4 2025:+13%) cost per click (CPC) was flat y/y (Q4 2025: -1%).
Assessment
Tinuiti Ads Benchmark report has historically been reliable in predicting Meta’s revenue growth.
In Q4, Q3, and Q2 2025, Meta’s reported revenue growth outpaced Tinuiti spend growth on the platform by 15, 12, and 10 percentage points, respectively. Extrapolating this trend, with the outperformance gap widening by a further 2-4%, implies Q1 2026 Meta revenue growth of approximately 30-32%, within the upper half of management’s guidance range of 26–33.5% (Q4 2025 Meta Platforms (Notion)).
It’s good to see that despite the rebound in ad spend on TikTok, ad spend on Meta Platforms remains strong.
While Tinuiti has been indicating declining Meta CPM, Meta 10-Q reports have been showing CPM is stable (Meta Platforms Tinuiti Report Analysis (Google Sheets)). Therefore, I will take Tinuiti CPM numbers with a grain of salt.