Tinuti Digital Ads Benchmark report signals Meta’s Q1 2025 revenue could grow at 14%-15%
- Ad spent growth on Meta Platforms by Tinuiti advertisers decelerated from 15% y/y in Q4 2024 to 11% y/y in Q1 2025— largely due to strong comps, impression rose 6% down from 9% in Q4 while CPM grew 4% (Q4 2024: +5%)— though many advertisers saw bigger increases.
- Ad spend on Facebook rose 11% y/y in Q1, same growth witnessed in Q4 while impression and CPM were steady at +10% and +1% respectively.
- Spend on Instagram ads grew 7% y/y in Q1 (Q4 2024: +20%)— largely due to strong comps, impression declined 6% y/y (Q4 2024: +5%) while CPM rose 14% y/y (Q4 2024: +15%).
- The share of Advantage+ shopping campaigns’ (ASCs) rose to 38% in Q1 2025, up from 24% a year prior despite some advertisers getting frustrated with it in some circumstances.
- Ad spend growth on TikTok fell 11% y/y in Q1 (Q4 2024: +13%), impressions rose 27% (Q4 2024: +4%), while CPM fell 30% y/y (Q4 2024: +8%) as advertisers diversify their ad investment in other platforms due to the uncertainty surrounding TikTok in the US.
- Ad spend on Google Search rose 9% y/y in Q1 2025 (Q4 2024: +10%), click through rate (CTR) rose 4% (Q4 2024: +1%) while cost per click (CPC) was up 5% (Q4 2024: +9%).
- Temu’s share of Google shopping ad impressions fell to zero in April 14th as the Chinese retailer cut its presence in Google auctions due to the tariffs.
Assessment
Over the most recent five quarters, Meta’s reported revenue growth has outperformed Tinuiti’s Meta ad spend growth by an average of 10.96%. However, in Q4 2024, the deviation narrowed significantly to 6%, likely due to strong year-over-year comparison effects reaching their peak. Based on the Tinuiti report, which has historically been a reliable indicator of Meta’s revenue growth, Meta’s Q1 2025 revenue could grow at 14%-15%.
It’s encouraging to see Advantage+ Shopping performing well, despite earlier negative reports from some advertisers.
TikTok’s declining ad share could serve as a tailwind for Meta, especially during periods of uncertainty related to tariffs.