Discussion about Michael Burry who successfully predicted the subprime crisis in 2008 and had an aggregate performance of 489.34% after expenses and fees in the years from 2000 to 2008.
More about him on Wikipedia.
We currently don’t have a clear opinion about him.
I have no idea how Michael Burry has done after his 2008 prediction. But he is betting against it again.
The expiration or actual amount he paid is not known.
I also have no idea how he did over this period. The only things I’ve heard is that he liquidated his entire portfolio in Q2 2022 and recommended investors to sell end of Jan 2023 but later acknowledged he was wrong about this predictions.
It‘s important to note that the value of his puts is significantly smaller than the value which is shown. Things like purchase price, strike price, duration etc. are not reported in the original 13-F filling.
Yes, from what I have read could have been between 30-50 million, could still be significant since his AUM is only 237 million. But obviously, all of this is just speculation, and what they think he could have bought.
Yeah. My take for now is that there is a lot of hype around him given how he was portrayed in „the big short“. I think people like to read about him this is why media picks up changes to his portfolio. Not sure if he can live up to this hype. 250 million aum is considered small for a funds but i think this is his own money.
Yeah. Well given the size of his bet and the attention today, I would guess this will increase 10x his reputation or just kill it.
The problem is that we do not have any info on the strike price and duration. Buying puts with 20%? of the portfolio is not that extreme if the duration is long and the strike price is not aggressively low.
Even if this bet has been aggressive and it fails most people would not read the specific news about that and he would retain his reputation from all the people who just saw the big short.
When it comes his reputation among professionals, I have no idea how it is.
