I=5 Citigroup said Muse could generate more than $27 billion in annual revenue by 2030
Citigroup said Meta’s Muse could generate more than $27 billion in annual revenue by 2030, including about $23 billion from transaction-related revenue and roughly $4.5 billion from subscriptions.
The firm said Muse is increasingly becoming the “front door to the internet,” helping users search, compare and transact online.
It noted that Muse has surpassed 6.6 million cumulative downloads since launch, while daily active users have climbed to 1.8 million as new use cases emerge and Meta steps up efforts to drive awareness.
Citigroup added that Muse will benefit from its first-mover advantage.
Outperform, $900: Yorkville Ives argued that Muse could position Meta as a key distribution layer for consumer and business AI while unlocking new revenue across subscriptions, commerce, messaging, creator tools, and enterprise agents.
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Overweight: Piper Sandler said ad checks showed strength through Q3, though forward-looking indicators were more tempered. The firm expects Q3 revenue of $63.4 billion, representing a 24% year-over-year increase. It expects Meta to guide revenue in the range of $71 billion to $74 billion and signal meaningful year-over-year operating expense growth and capital expenditure increases into 2027.
Piper Sandler characterized Muse and Business Agent as transformative products that could fundamentally reshape the market. The firm expects Meta to invest heavily in supporting their development and adoption.
It pointed out that regulatory conditions now appear favorable.
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Buy, $865: TD Cowen expects robust but modestly slowing revenue growth in the third quarter, with revenue projected to exceed consensus estimates by 1%, supported by continued gains in AI-driven engagement. It expects further operating margin compression amid ramping AI spending.
I=5 Jefferies said Meta’s Muse was blocked by one-third of websites tested
Jefferies said Meta’s Muse was blocked by one-third of websites tested, potentially delaying revenue from agentic commerce.
Jefferies said an advertising consultant told them that Meta’s ad spend growth outpaced Google’s in the third quarter and expects the outperformance to continue in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2027.
Buy, $886: Rosenblatt said Meta’s Muse Wonder and Wonder Full AI models are now benchmarking stronger than OpenAI and close to Anthropic. It noted that the advancements challenge claims that Meta’s aggressive AI spending and hiring have delivered little value beyond supporting its core advertising business.
Buy, $790->$930: Pivotal Research analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak said Meta’s first frontier-class model release since Alexandr Wang’s August 2025 reorganization performs on par with, or close to, models from leading AI labs.
Overweight, $900: KeyBanc said the release of Muse Wonder models represent a significant achievement for Meta Superintelligence Lab (MSL).
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Buy, $763->$1,000: Truist Securities cited strong early traction of Muse AI Agent. It expects Muse to bring $28.5 billion in incremental revenue by 2030. Analyst Youssef Squali expects Q3 revenue of $63.9 billion, up 25% year over year and at the high end of management’s $61 billion to $64 billion guidance. He expects cost per thousand impressions to rise by double digits again, helped by adoption of Meta’s Advantage+ automated advertising suite.
I=6 Meta’s Muse reaches 10.8 Million downloads, with daily U.S. downloads holding steady at 350,000, according to UBS
According to UBS analysts, Muse had accumulated approximately 10.8 million downloads as of October 13, with daily U.S. downloads holding steady at around 350,000 since the beginning of the month. Muse also held down the top spot on the iOS App Store since Sept. 28, citing Apptopia.
Citing SemiAnalysis data, UBS analysts estimate Muse’s annual cost at $14–$35 per user, implying approximately $30 billion annually for 100 million users. To boost Meta’s projected 2028 EBIT by 15%, they estimate Muse would need to generate around $960 billion in gross merchandise value at a 5% take rate or attract 96 million paying subscribers at an 80% margin. Muse may also provide data for targeted advertising, but the upside is hard to quantify.