According to Tax Foundation tariffs will weight on GDP Growth and employment for the US instead of the opposite as Trump is declaring
The average tariff rate on U.S. imports could rise to 8.4% in 2025, the highest since 1946.
Second Trump administration tariffs now affect more than $1 trillion of imports, and when temporary exemptions for Canada and Mexico expire in April, the tariffs will affect more than $1.4 trillion of imports. (~5% of GDP)
The after-tax income of American households is projected to decline by 1% on average in 2026 across all income levels:
Lower-income households are hit harder in relative terms due to higher prices on basic goods.
The top 1% of earners face a smaller decline of 0.8%, but no group escapes the overall cost burden
Estimated $2.34 trillion in additional tax revenue over 10 years, but dynamic effects lower revenues as tariffs shrink the economy.
Academic and governmental studies find that the previous Trump-Biden tariffs have raised prices and reduced output and employment, producing a net negative impact on the US economy.
