No, I did not consider DOGE cuts being meaningful in my scenarios because I had already concluded the amount of spending DOGE can cut is very minimal.
Outlays for the government were in FY2024 $6.7 trillion (11% y/y), $150 billion is 2.2%.
But, as of March 2025, the 1H FY 2025 is still growing by 7% (317 b). So in my projections, I am only forecasting a slightly lower growth rate for gov spending than 2024, but still positive (2% vs 3%)
Is still a negative headwind for the economy, especially the economy being used to very high growth for the government, but not to the extend DOGE was saying.