A discussion about China’s geopolitics esp. it’s tensions with Taiwan.
Previous discussion on Discord
Summary
To be updated
A fund manager claims that Xi Jinping is not economically focused and is instead making preparation for war in Taiwan. I have no idea how likely this is. From my understanding, it would be very difficult for China to attack Taiwan as of now.
Why it is do you think is unlikely?
A seaborn attack is way harder to successfully pull off and the United States has a clear commitment to protect Taiwan in contrast to Ukraine where security guarantees never existed. The U.S navy in the indo-pacific remains very strong and protecting Taiwan is vital for U.S. power projection in the region.
After the Ukraine war started I spent some significant time with the probably of a Taiwanese invasion and found a few good sources which I posted in Discord. (Will migrate this to this topic)
The most dangerous scenario I could see right now is that China is getting ready militarily in order to strike in case there is some U.S. weakness. (E.g. internal chaos after election)