General investment discussion of Bumble.
Sat down and looked at Bumble for a while. Also spent half an hour listening to video you guys had linked, here are some thoughts, will stop for now though and go much deeper before I see you. I can see what you see in the CEO, she is principled, however, I don’t want to overly trust my impressions here, the ability to read the opposite sex is not something I can be credited with hahaha. But she was very coherent and had some really interesting insights.
My concerns that I will likely prioritise are the following:
- The money that really drives this product (are users mainly hooking up or are they really trying to create relationships, and if the latter is the case what does that mean for the business model)
- The legal situation stood to me, so many suits, this is only a bloody flag though, no insight except the fact that it stuck out to me how common it was for the company to get sued lately
- The influence of private equity, I know Blackstone had got into the loop, I would want to understand what they did to the company while they were there, I could see some effects from their stay in the numbers, I wonder how this will affect the company (this really stood out by the way, I was confused to see certain line items and cash flows, and the involvement of Blackstone really made that make sense).
That is basically it for now, it was really quite surface level and although there are some line items I would want an explanation for, the earning power is there.
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We haven’t looked deeply into the legal situation, but I think the cases are fairly normal for any consumer-tech business. Unlike Match Group, Bumble has relatively faced less intense legal suits. Match Group’s recent settlement with the FTC for only $14 million yet the case against Match Group appeared strong diminishes the headwind from such legal suits. This is one of our next topics to look into though. If you find any good insights, please add to: Bumble Legal Disputes (Notion)
On whether Bumble is a hookup app or a meaningful relationship app, I think it sits in between. Based on commentaries, many people have found love in Bumble but there are also those using it for short-term relationships. Are you trying to imply that if Bumble is mainly for meaningful relationships, its model is at risk since users will move out of the platform once they fall in love? If yes, I don’t think so. I think it’s the opposite since the more people are successful the more people who are using the app. Look at Hinge which is mainly for meaningful relationships (dubbed “designed-to-be-deleted”) but growing fast- revenue growth of 27% y/y in Q3 2025 (Match Group Valuation Model (Google Sheets). I think the question we should be asking ourselves is whether people will still use dating apps to find real love?
But the key advantage for Bumble is its strong perception among women and we know men go where women are. When it launched, it drove the perception that the app is safer for women than other dating apps and that women using it have more control since they could message first.
Blackstone seems to be wanting to get out as seen by the recent conversion of all its common units to class A common stock and the sale of some class A shares. Similarly, Blackstone’s voting power is diminishing (Notion). Additionally, Bumble will now longer make payments to common units holders after the parties decided last quarter to end Tax Receivable Agreement (TRA). Bumble had estimated that it was going to make payment of $27-59 million per year for 15 years related to TRA (Notion-Bumble TRA).
Let me know if you need further clarification or if you find additional insights.
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Good points Aron.
Maybe just to add - while some use Bumble for short-term dating - Bumble, like Hinge, is positioning itself for intentional long-term dating.
This can be seen e.g. in the vision of Whitney Wolfe Herd (YT, min 47, Nov 2025) and in their latest marketing campaign.
Blackstone and it’s impact are good questions. I assume it’s not too positive as the company apparently was too short-term focused after their IPO and “lost it’s way” according to Wolfe Herd.
Blackstone currently is reducing it’s exposure to the business and have converted their common units.
Apart TRA and related cash-flows any line items that stood out to you?
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