This topic summarizes and discusses analysts’ opinions on Bumble.
Underperform; $5.25->$5.50: Bofa said recent developments such as the Apple-DOJ case and the Apple-Epic court ruling in April indicate there is potential for lower app fees in the US. Apple-Epic case will allow developers to move users away from Apple App Store. It added that Bumble is currently testing off-app payments. Bofa sees significant benefit in lower app fees in the US and lower benefit in the EU.
I=5
Morgan Stanley expects volatility in key performance indicators and financial metrics for Match Group and Bumble in Q2 and 2025
“The two online dating companies are under new management and are emphasizing faster product development and leaner operations as they attempt to set-up for medium-term user growth,” the analysts said.
“As a result, we expect minimal evidence in the quarter that will help frame the turnarounds’ timing or change of success with industry-wide top of funnel trends pointing to further deceleration,” the analysts said.
August 12, 2025
Deutsche Bank raises Bumble’s price target to $6.5 from $5.5 but maintains hold rating (reason behind paywall)
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I=8
Bumble shares down 3.3% pre-market on Goldman Sachs downgrade due to limited visibility on turnaround and declining user trends
Buy->Neutral, $8->$7: Goldman Sachs cited limited visibility on Bumble’s turnaround, with meaningful improvement unlikely until mid-2026. They pointed to Bumble’s de-emphasis on marketing, especially in U.S. which has resulted in app downloads declining more than 35% y/y, though U.S. monthly active users (MAUs) are declining at a slower pace.
Alexandra Steiger said industry data shows Hinge continue to outperform other dating apps in user growth, though U.S. user trends have decelerated throughout the quarter.
He also pointed out that Tinder has begun seeing improvement in international user trends, creating a more challenging environment for Bumble.
Bumble shares are down 3.3% while Match Group shares are little changed pre-market.
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Any indication which datapoints are used by analysts in the dating industry? Could be interesting data (if accessible) for us as well.
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There are rare mentions of where they get their data on dating apps. Only Bofa has mentioned relying on Sensor Tower for Match Group user trends.
But across research firms, Sensor Tower data dominates research reports on app user trends. There are also mentions of Apptopia data and on rare occasions Similarweb.
Unlike Sensor Tower, Apptopia rarely publish free data on dating apps.
Datapoints statistics
GPT 5 pro: Which datapoints are generally used by analysts from Goldman Sachs, Bofa, Citi, Jefferies, etc on app user trends? i.e. which data are mainly used to give insights on app DAUs, MAUs, downloads, etc?
Yes—sell‑side analyst teams routinely cite third‑party app‑intelligence vendors (Sensor Tower, Apptopia, Similarweb, data.ai/App Annie, QuestMobile, etc.) when discussing usage KPIs like downloads, DAU/MAU, and share. Here are concrete, citable examples:
| Analyst firm | Vendor cited | What they referenced (example) | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Sensor Tower | Footnotes and charts in Goldman’s research use Sensor Tower for app usage/downloads (e.g., “Music in the Air” industry deck; “Top of Mind” features). Xiaomi equity note also labels “Oversea MAU (Sensor Tower)”. | Goldman research PDFs show “Source: … Sensor Tower … Goldman Sachs GIR”; Xiaomi note shows “Oversea MAU (Sensor Tower)”. (Goldman Sachs) |
| Bank of America (BofA) Global Research | Sensor Tower | BofA’s notes on streaming explicitly base monthly downloads/MAU trends on Sensor Tower; their “Agentic AI Handbook” also attributes mobile DAU data to Sensor Tower. | Reuters summary of BofA note cites Sensor Tower; BofA’s PDF footnotes: “Source: BofA Global Research, Sensor Tower.” (Reuters) |
| Citi Research | Sensor Tower | Citi’s coverage of Reddit references “recent Sensor Tower data” on user growth/engagement stabilizing. | Investing.com write‑up of the Citi note quotes the Sensor Tower attribution. (Investing.com) |
| Jefferies | Sensor Tower; Similarweb | Jefferies’ “Fitness & Wellness” report includes multiple charts labeled “Source: Sensor Tower, Jefferies” for app downloads; a separate JefData report builds web/app usage indices from Similarweb traffic. | Jefferies PDF with “Source: Sensor Tower, Jefferies”; JefData PDF notes “Source: SimilarWeb, Jefferies.” (Integrity Square) |
| Morgan Stanley | Sensor Tower | Morgan Stanley’s App Store tracking repeatedly cites Sensor Tower for revenue/usage trends in Apple coverage. | Barron’s summarizing an MS note explicitly says “citing Sensor Tower”; additional MS notes do the same. (Barron’s) |
| J.P. Morgan | Sensor Tower | JPM uses Sensor Tower to track Apple App Store monthly revenue/usage in research updates. | Investing.com recap of a JPM note attributes the data to Sensor Tower. (Investing.com) |
| UBS (Evidence Lab) | Sensor Tower | UBS Evidence Lab fact packs on U.S. food delivery use Sensor Tower to measure iPhone app download share. | UBS Evidence Lab PDF, “Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Sensor Tower.” (Korea) |
| Barclays | Apptopia | Barclays Investment Science has used Apptopia to analyze app adoption (e.g., Yuka app downloads surpassing 75M+). | Yahoo Finance recap notes “data from Apptopia, analyzed by Barclays’ Investment Science team.” (Yahoo Finance) |
| Bernstein | Apptopia | Bernstein’s payments initiation note references Apptopia signals for PayPal net‑adds risk. | Bernstein PDF: “Apptopia data suggest…”. (Bernstein Research) |
Apptopia and Sensor Tower pricing
GPT 5: What is the pricing for Sensor Tower and Apptopia?
Here’s what I found on the pricing of Sensor Tower and Apptopia. Note: these are estimates and “starting”/“typical” figures; for precise pricing, you should contact their sales teams.
Sensor Tower Pricing
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Sensor Tower does not publicly list fixed pricing tiers — you typically need to request a demo / quote. (Sensor Tower)
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According to third-party sources:
- Vendr reports that among ~20 purchases, the median cost is US $70,000/year (range ~$25,500 to ~$108,500) (Vendr)
- For smaller teams or indie devs, some estimates suggest a baseline in the US $25,000–$40,000/year range, depending on modules/features. (strataigize.com)
- Some sources say smaller plans might “start at $99/month” on comparison sites (though this seems unlikely for full-featured Sensor Tower). (Capterra)
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Bottom line: Sensor Tower is positioned as an enterprise / high-end tool. Expect six-figure annual pricing for full access.
Apptopia Pricing
Apptopia is somewhat more transparent (though still with custom/enterprise components). Here’s what I found:
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Public plans / editions (per month) from reviews and software listings:
- Start Plan: US $79/month (TrustRadius)
- Engage Plan: US $899/month (TrustRadius)
- Grow Plan: US $1,499/month (TrustRadius)
- Enterprise: higher, custom pricing (some sources say “starts at $2,500/month”) (GetApp)
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Annual / median usage pricing (for larger clients):
- Vendr reports the median annual purchase is US $61,000 (range ~$27,144 to ~$72,000) (Vendr)
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Some data-vendor directories note that Apptopia “has not published pricing information for their data services” and encourage contacting them for details. (Datarade)
If you tell me your use case (startup / agency / enterprise), region (Kenya / Africa / global), and which features you need (just app metrics? ad intelligence? API access?) I can try to estimate what the cost might look like for you. Would you like me to do that?
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I=4
Underperform, $5.50→$5.00; Bofa forecasts Bumble will report Q3 2025 revenue of $247 million, which is 0.8% above the consensus estimate of $245 million. It projects Q3 EBITDA of $84 million, which is 2.4% above consensus estimate of $82 million. It anticipates 2.5 million Bumble payers for Q3, 1.5% above consensus and 1.3 million Badoo and other payers, 3.4% above consensus. Bofa views cost-saving initiatives and focus on profitability as positive developments, but said the transition to organic marketing may lead to weaker payer trends in the near term.