This topic will focus on gathering insights and developments about the short and long term of automotive production trends that can help us create and incorporate better inputs into the valuation models.
January 2025 Light Vehicle Production Forecast
- Global auto industry dynamics in 2025 are shaped by fluctuating demand, regulatory shifts, and geopolitical factors.
Some regions are experiencing slower electric vehicle (EV) adoption, while others see rapid growth.
Europe:
- Upward Adjustments: Production outlook raised by 34,000 units for 2025 and 47,000 for 2026. Positive adjustments of 86,000 units noted for 2024.
- Challenges: Despite these increases, 2025 is expected to see a 3.0% production decline due to weak demand and supply chain issues.
- Key Players: Volkswagen, Stellantis, and Toyota lead the growth in ICE vehicle production.
Greater China:
- Significant Growth: Production outlook increased by 319,000 units for 2025, with strong domestic demand and government incentives.
- NEV Surge: NEVs achieved over 50% market share in H2-2024, supported by extended scrappage subsidies.
North America:
- Stable Market: Slight production increase of 7,000 units for 2025 and 2026.
- Shift from BEVs: Over 1.7 million BEV units removed from forecasts through 2032, reflecting a pivot back to ICE vehicles.
https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/2025-light-vehicle-production-forecast.html