In the first half of 2024, new car registrations increased by 4.5%, reaching nearly 5.7 million units. However, registration volumes remain relatively low (-18%) compared to pre-pandemic levels.
1H2024 growth of 4.5% is higher than the 2.5% growth forecasted by ACEA for 2024. Most of this growth however is due to the hybrid electric car segment.
Last year 2H had lower growth than 1H, so maybe we could expect a bit lower growth rate for 2024 (3-4%).
However, I would like to analyze the whole series at some point to see the seasonal patterns more clearly since last year is not the best comp imo.
China automakers EV registrations in the EU fell in July, exaggerated by EU tariffs but BYD’s strength holds up
Hybrid Electric continues gaining market share this year, 30.3% vs 25.8% in 2023, and is the only significant segment year to date recording positive growth.
Dataforce says Chinese automakers accounted for 9.9% of EU EV registrations in July, down from 10.2% in July 2023-impacted by the EU tariffs.
Here is how the Chinese EV makers performed in Europe in July following the imposition of tariffs by the EU, according to Jato Dynamics
Consumers in core markets of Germany, France, Italy and Spain drove an 18% on-year drop in the bloc’s monthly registrations, which reflect sales, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association said Thursday. EU registrations came to around 643,600 for the month, with every major European carmaker posting declines.
Stellantis and Volkswagen posted significant drops in August new-car registrations in the European Union.
Seems there is seasonality in the series, and August is historically a bad month. Last year was not as pronounced probably since demand was catching up.
So, for now I don’t expect this to mean much, but worth to monitor the coming months.
@Magaly i think we need to develop a basic automotive demand model soon. At the current stage we have all this detailed monthly data but I think it’s not easy to see the big full picture of what is happening or what we expect to happen in the future.
We should also consider insights we get from companies like Volkswagen and provide more context for them.
For example Volkswagen CFO recently said that yearly demand of new cars will be 2 million lower in Europe compared to pre-pandemic. Does this mean he simply expects current demand to remain stable?
I also wonder if Volkswagen sees larger problems coming given their plans to cut jobs or just wants to increase profitability and wonder if this weaker August is meaningful in this context or simply hard yearly comps as you point out.
Yes sure, I am about to finish the first try of GDP and consequent post this week. So, I will most likely be able to continue with this sometime next week.
However, I feel I lack the knowledge and expertise in this sector to fully assess whether long-term structural changes are occurring in sales or not.
But, given the weaker global economy, I don’t anticipate demand to remain that stable. It’s likely they are planning to cut costs as part of risk management? Even if the worst-case scenario doesn’t materialize, this strategy would allow them to improve margins then.
For this, I think I could also use earnings call insgiths from all sectors of the auto industry: manufacturers, dealers, credit institutions, etc, to understand better what they are currently seeing.
I=5
@Magaly have you gotten time to assess how the 2025 sales will develop? I feel like next year will also be a rough ride for automakers mainly due to the 2025 CO2 regulation, rising competition and weaker global economy. Automakers such as the VW brand, Audi brand and others are already increasing prices for the 2025 ICEs and lowering prices for BEVs. That would likely reduce sales for the ICEs.
I am currently working on the sales model, but is still in progress, as I am still gathering data, and researching information for my assumptions. My guess is that it will be ready somewhere in the next couple of weeks (as I usually also have other recurrent macro tasks), and will probably make a post with my assessment.
But from my current knowledge and economic conditions is most likely that yes, I agree that the next couple of years probably be still challenging, especially in Europe and China, with a potential small recovery after that, and with EVs continuing to take market share.
Okay, great.
The core structure of the model looks good. Looking forward to your assessment.
ACEA originally expected a 2.5% increase in 2024, so the market performed worse than expected.
VW registrations increased by 2.5%, increasing market share to 26.3% from 25.9%
Volkswagen gained 3.4% of the German BEV market share in the trailing 3 months ending in February while BMW and Mercedes lost market share
Volkswagen EVs are doing well in German, according to KBA data. In the trailing 3 months (December-February), Volkswagen took additional 3.4% BEV share in Germany compared to September-November. Six of its BEVs, VW ID.7, Skoda Enyaq, VW ID.4/I.D5, Cupra Born, VW ID.3, and Audi Q4 e-tron were in the top 10 position. BMW lost 2% of the market, Mercedes lost 3.4% while Renault gained 2%.
EVs Take 27.3% Share In Germany — Volkswagen ID.7 Still Leading - CleanTechnica.
