Main Article: ADP Employment - InvestmentWiki
Important to mention that ADP uses a totally different methodology than non-farm payrolls and is only private sector, and that’s why they are usually different. Both probably have their weaknesses, but I would only use it as additional confirmation of the overall trend.
Another soft report from labor market.
Job growth slowed notably last month, driven heavily by leisure and hospitality. Job creation by hotels, restaurants and other employers in the sector fell to 30,000 in August after months of strong hiring.
“This month’s numbers are consistent with the pace of job creation before the pandemic,” said Nela
Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “After two years of exceptional gains tied to the recovery, we’re
moving toward more sustainable growth in pay and employment as the economic effects of the pandemic recede.”
Cool, that you created a standalone article and topic for those job numbers.
It would be interesting to create an overview jobs article that describes how job reports differ in their methodology, how much they correlate, which numbers are released first and what we should focus on to get the most accurate picture.
++ strength and weaknesses of different reports.
To me ADP data feels very solid given the large data sample but it might have some disadvantages I am not aware of.
I=6
ADP said private sector added 113,000 jobs in October, higher than 89,000 added in September but lower than the 130,000 estimate.
Annual wage growth slowed to 5.7% from 5.9% in September.
“No single industry dominated hiring this month, and big post-pandemic pay increases seem to be behind us. In all, October’s numbers paint a well-rounded jobs picture. And while the labor market has slowed, it’s still enough to support strong consumer spending,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
I=6
ADP report indicates private sector added 103,000 jobs in November, lower than 113,000 jobs added in October and below 128,000 estimate.
Annual wage growth slowed to 5.6% from 5.7% in October.
"Restaurants and hotels were the biggest job creators during the post-pandemic recovery. But that boost is behind us, and the return to trend in leisure and hospitality suggests the economy as a whole will see more moderate hiring and wage growth in 2024, "said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
I=6
ADP indicates private sector added 164,000 jobs in December, higher than 101,000 in November and better than the 130,000 estimate.
Annual wage growth decelerated to 5.4% from 5.6% in November.
“We’re returning to a labor market that’s very much aligned with pre-pandemic hiring. While wages didn’t drive the recent bout of inflation, now that pay growth has retreated, any risk of a wage-price spiral has all but disappeared,”"said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
I=5
ADP indicates private sector added 184,000 jobs in March, higher than the 155,000 added in February (revised upwards from 140,000) which was also the Dow Jones estimate.
Annual wage growth was flat at 5.1% in March, after months of steady decline.
“March was surprising not just for the pay gains, but the sectors that recorded them. The three biggest increases for job-changers were in construction, financial services, and manufacturing. Inflation has been cooling, but our data shows pay is heating up in both goods and services,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson.
I=5
Private payrolls increased by 192,000 in April, higher-than 183,000 estimate but lower-than 208,000 added in March (revised upwards from 184,000).
Annual wage growth was up 5% y/y in April, the smallest gain since August 2021.
“Hiring was broad-based in April. Only the information sector — telecommunications, media, and information technology — showed weakness, posting job losses and the smallest pace of pay gains since August 2021,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
