I agree that macro will play a huge role in the company, but I think is more important to understand that the company can really survive an adverse scenario more than that. Do they have the same managers as in 2008?
I think even some manufacturers could come out winners if they have a strong position and management beforehand.
1 aspect I disagree is 2008 being a sudden shock. It was for the government and investors that continued to ignore the economic weakness that was very apparent long before the shock in September 2008, Bearn Stearns even failed since March, and the recession began end of 2007. Something really bad had to happen to make it obvious to them. And we see a similar pattern in other recessions. I think is similar to today’s environment, even if it’s extremely talked about, I don’t think investors are positioned in case of a “sudden” shock. Not saying we will have a similar shock btw than 2008, it could not even happen at all, but I don’t think it can be discarded either.
But I do agree VW still seems pretty undervalued, even with the rally and all. I would also not expect that large decline in prices compared to other positions.