Just a quick follow-up here. Yes for both Match Group and Bumble i would be very comfortable owning them based on current cash flows. The main risk here is that cash-flows could dry up as they loose users if they don’t manage to stabilize their businesses or adjust their cost basis accordingly. This means i would not be comfortable buying or owning the business outright as it is very much a bet on management to turn things around and also a bet on their ability to improve their product. This is the kind of bet that worked very well for me in the past, i think partially because it is against the common sense of only looking at current numbers.
In other words i think management + team quality and technological potential are often not priced correctly by the market and this is where the hidden value in this play is.
Overall my conviction rose even further esp. for Bumble as i understand the company better and given how low valuations are. With conviction i am referring to a certain kind of asymmetry. I see way larger upside than downside esp. given how much i believe they could cut their costs if truly needed, and the longterm value for humanity of powerful matchmaking in dating.
This type of business thrives on the amount people who use it and offers the incumbents very powerful moats. So they should have an excellent position to innovate from here. As you correctly point out it does not come without risks that are mainly on the execution side and predicting technology changes and human behavior correctly.