No, I think communication is the most likely problem. Because yes, from my point of view, your bullish assumptions are not based on much more than just a theory without much certainty and did not know/dont know your work behind them that supports them.
Would also be interested to understand your bearish points, what you are already considering, and the downside that you are willing to accept in a specific position.
I agree we need predictions/theories to be able to stay ahead of the curve. This is true for company fundamentals, as it is for macro.
However I think macro predictions, are usually more complex, and could be wrong more often, because the universe of information is very difficult to manage, and there are a lot of things we just still dont know.
So sometimes my worry comes from investment thesis that bet 100% going one way or the other, that 1 macro event could change it all. I am not sure what would be your protections in case something in macro goes wrong, especially in the current environment, if it were 2021, with QE at full speed, would be totally different
But this also also applies if you were to turn very bearish for example, and start betting only on that.
Maybe what I am trying to say is that I don’t see your approach being balanced, especially in an environment where there are risks of being wrong in every direction.
And also, this is expected from your personal interest, but I think you spend much more time trying to understand a company but don’t do the same for macro.
So, lately has been easier for me to understand where you maybe need additional info or arguments when I ask you questions of why you think X or Y, but I won’t be able to do that if you don’t share your assumptions more often, or if you don’t share your thoughts about macro topics more often too, even for the ones that are not imminent or only from important events happening currently.