Q4 2025 Meta Platforms Earnings

Investments
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Tinuiti Ads Benchmark report indicate Meta’s Q4 2025 revenue could grow by 19%-21%

  • Ad spent growth on Meta Platforms by Tinuiti advertisers decelerated to 9% in Q4 2025 from 14% in Q3 due to tough comparisons, ad impressions rose 17% y/y- the strongest growth in the last nine quarters while CPM fell 7% y/y (Q3 2025: -2%) as lower CPM inventories such as Reels continue to gain share.
  • Ad spend growth on Facebook decelerated to 3% y/y from 9% in Q3, ad impression rose 19% y/y- the fastest growth since Q3 2024 while CPM fell 13% y/y (Q3 2025: -6%).
  • Ad spend growth on Instagram decelerated to 15% y/y from 21% in Q3, ad impression rose 7% y/y (Q3 2025:+9% y/y) while CPM rose 7% y/y (Q3 2025: +11%).
  • Ad spend growth on TikTok rose 1% y/y (Q3 2025:-4%) as advertisers grew more confident on its future, ad impressions rose 8% y/y (Q3 2025: +23%) while CPM fell 6% y/y (Q3 2025: -22%).
  • Ad spend growth on Google search rose 13% y/y (Q3 2025: +10%), click through rate (CTR) accelerated to 13% y/y from 11% in Q3 while the drop in cost per click (CPC) was unchanged at -1%.

Assessment
Over the most recent eight quarters, Meta’s reported revenue growth has outperformed Tinuiti’s Meta ad spend growth by an average of 9.68% (Meta Tinuiti Report Analysis (Google Sheets)), highest outperformance being 12% . Based on the Tinuiti report, which has historically been a reliable indicator of Meta’s revenue growth, Meta’s Q4 2025 revenue could grow by 19%-21%. I arrived at this range by taking the Tinuiti ad spend growth rate and adding the average outperformance and highest outperformance. So, 9%+9.68% for low-point and 9%+12% for higher-point. Management is guiding y/y revenue growth in the range of 15.7%-21.9% (Q4 2025 Meta Platforms Earnings (Notion)), hence Tinuiti report signals revenue will be within the guidance range.

While Tinuiti has been indicating declining Meta CPM, Meta 10-Q reports have been showing CPM is stable (Meta Platforms Tinuiti Report Analysis (Google Sheets)). Therefore, I will take Tinuiti CPM numbers with a grain of salt.

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