Bumble shares fall as much as 10% after issuing weaker-than-expected Q3 2026 guidance
- Bumble’s Q2 2026 revenue (press release) fell 15.2% y/y to $210.5 m, in line with analysts’ estimate and slightly above midpoint management guidance of $209 m, adjusted EBITDA fell 23% y/y to $72.9 m, above management’s upper-point guidance of $70 m, while diluted EPS (excluding impairments) was $0.27 versus analysts’ estimate of $0.24.
- Bumble app payers fell 17% y/y to 2.077 m, above my estimate of 2.012 m-with the rate of decline improving quarter-over-quarter, while Bumble app average revenue per payer (ARPP) rose 2.6% y/y to $27.55, below my estimate of $28.19.
- It guides Q3 2026 revenue in the range of $205-213 million (-16.7% to -13.5% y/y), below my base estimate of $214.7 m and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $56-60 million (-32.6% to -27.8% y/y) versus my base estimate of $69 m.