Volkswagen Q1 2025 revenue topped analysts estimates while operating result missed estimate due to special effects
- Volkswagen Group preliminary report indicates Q1 2024 revenue rose 3% y/y to €78 billion (analysts estimate: €77.2 billion) while operating return on sales came in at 3.6%, lower than 5% estimate.
- The operating return was impacted by special effects amounting to €1.1 billion, which included €0.6 billion provision for CO2 regulation, €0.2 billion provision for CARIAD restructuring and €0.3 billion provisions for the diesel issue and valuation of vehicles in transit in connection with U.S. import tariffs.
- Volkswagen reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, including revenue growth of 5%, an operating return on sales of 5.5% to 6.5%, net cash flow in the Automotive Division of €2 to €5 billion, and Automotive Division net liquidity between €34 and €37 billion.
- Volkswagen said the 2025 guidance excludes the impact from tariffs since its impacts cannot be conclusively assessed at the present.
Assessment
Excluding special effects, Volkswagen Group’s Q1 2024 operating result would likely have been in line with estimates. However, the €0.6 billion provision for CO₂ regulation was significantly higher than my estimate of €0.1 billion.